NJ weather: One more round of rain Monday, then feeling like fall

The Bottom Line

This weekend progressed from unsettled to downright torrential. Sunday evening's rain totalled 5 inches in parts of North Jersey, touching off serious flooding concerns and snarling traffic all over.

The drenching downpours have since exited, although residual puddles remain through your Monday morning commute. Flight delays and cancellations are plentiful at area airports too.

We have one more round of showers and thunderstorms coming on Monday, although concerns over flooding are lower this time.

After a cold front passes by Monday night, a much cooler, drier air mass will arrive. The middle part of the week feels downright fall-like, with some of the coolest temperatures NJ has seen since mid-May. That will be the start of another extended period of mainly dry, generally sunny weather lasting at least into next weekend.

Monday

The first half of Monday will be fine. The second half will be a little bit wet.

We start the day with some patchy fog and low clouds around. Temperatures on this Monday morning are hovering around 70 degrees.

Under partly sunny skies, it will be a warm and humid summer day. High temperatures will peak around 80 to 85 degrees across most of the state.

The big push of scattered showers and thunderstorms is forecast to begin around 2 or 3 p.m., pushing generally from northwest to southeast across the state.

That timing is concerning, as it occurs during the afternoon — peak heating. So storms could pack a punch of wind as they first roll in. While pockets of heavy rain are possible, storm cells should be moving quickly — that is why our flooding threat is greatly reduced this time around.

A cold front will sweep out any and all rain and thunderstorms by late Monday evening. Skies will clear overnight, and both temperatures and humidity levels will start to drop. Overnight lows will probably end up in the comfortably cool lower 60s.

One more important note for Monday: Hurricane Ernesto is about 700 miles east of New Jersey, still throwing significant surf and swell in our direction. A high risk of dangerous rip currents and rough surf continues for Monday. One or two more rounds of minor category tidal flooding are possible too.

Tuesday

I had previously plugged in a shower chance for Tuesday morning, but I believe our weather will dry out completely by daybreak.

Tuesday is going to be breezy and much cooler, reminiscent of a late September day. It will be partly sunny and dry. High temperatures will only reach the mid 70s Tuesday afternoon. Incredibly pleasant — just not very summerlike.

Wednesday

Air conditioners will continue to get a break. In fact, you might be reaching for the heater in your car first thing in the morning, with a few overnight lows close to the 50-degree mark!

Wednesday will be the coolest day of the week, with highs only in the lower 70s. That would be New Jersey's coolest day since mid-May. Lots of sunshine and dry weather to go around.

Thursday

Thursday will be mostly sunny and still unseasonably cool, with highs bouncing back to the mid 70s.

Friday & Beyond

A warming trend will carry into the last full weekend of August. Although rain chances stay very low.

Friday will be back to around 80 degrees, with lots of sunshine and a light southwesterly breeze.

Both Saturday and Sunday are expected to peak in the lower to mid 80s. That is more typical of late August weather in New Jersey. For the moment, I'm going for a dry forecast with just a few clouds overhead.

Long-range models hint at a rain chance early next week. But that is still a week away — plenty of time to worry about that once we get a little closer.