NJ weather: One more unsettled day, sunshine on the horizon

The Bottom Line

Happy October, one and all! This is a middle-of-the-road month for New Jersey — on average, our 6th warmest, 6th wettest, and 7th snowiest month of the year. It is also still hurricane season. It is also the prime fall foliage season. It is also usually the time of our first widespread frost of the season. Lots to love about October ... including Halloween, of course!

Looking at our weather forecast, Tuesday is a big day. The remnant low that used to be Hurricane Helene finally passes south of New Jersey and heads out to sea.

That means we have improving weather on the way. Brighter, drier, and warmer. But we are not quite there yet.

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Tuesday

Monday turned out to be a nice day. But Tuesday takes a little step downhill, with lots of clouds overhead and a few raindrops possible. It will also have a cool feel, as temperatures stay a few degrees below seasonal normals.

We are starting the morning with temperatures around 60 degrees, give or take. High temperatures will be limited to the upper 60s to around 70, owing to cloudy skies and an on-shore breeze.

I have seen a few spot sprinkles show up on radar early Tuesday morning. Overall, rain chances will be low going forward through the daytime hours. Just a quick isolated shower, mainly over southern New Jersey. You can probably skip the umbrella.

Clouds may start to break apart as Tuesday night falls. It will be comfortably cool overnight, with low temperatures dipping into the upper 50s.

Wednesday

Wednesday is a cold front day. But that frontal boundary will be weak. And probably dry.

It will still be mostly cloudy through Wednesday morning and afternoon. But comfortable, with high temperatures again in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.

While a stray shower can not be completely ruled out late-day, I am leaning toward a rain-free forecast.

Thursday

After almost a week of Helene-induced unsettled weather (read: much-needed rain), it is time to see the sun again.

Thursday looks beautiful, with mostly sunny skies, a light breeze, and mild temperatures. Highs should push to about 70 to 75 degrees. Real 'Goldilocks' air for early October — not too hot, not too cold, not too humid, not too dry.

Friday

Friday will be great too, although skies will transition from sun to clouds through the day. We will stay completely dry though.

High temperatures will be even warmer, pushing into the mid 70s. If SW NJ holds on to sunshine long enough, 80 degrees is not out of the question. Nice and warm!

The Weekend & Beyond

Some model guidance has hinted at a shower early Saturday morning. Worth mentioning, but not worth stressing over. The rest of the weekend will be very nice.

Saturday's call is partly sunny, with highs 75 to 80. Sunday looks even brighter, mostly sunny, again in the 75 to 80 degree range.

Big changes arrive late Sunday night into Monday though. A strong cold front will likely usher in a period of rain — possibly as much as an inch. Followed by a windy day Monday. And cooler temperatures.

I suspect highs for next week will descend to the 60s, more typical of late October than early October. And we will have to watch the overnight low temperature forecast closely — early next week could be the season's first opportunity for frost, especially in New Jersey's colder northwest hills.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.