NJ weather: 3 more nice days, Ernesto stays well off-shore

The Bottom Line

Same splendid story, different delightful day. We continue to find ourselves in a quiet, pleasant weather pattern this week. Leading to bright skies, low humidity, light winds, and very little rain.

We will let the good times (and good weather) roll for another three days: Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Then we have to talk about some rain moving in this weekend.

I want to make special note of Tropical Storm Ernesto. At least two local media outlets are trying desperately to hype up the storm's potential impact on New Jersey — but that's just NOT the case. The storm is centered just north of Puerto Rico, and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane later on Wednesday. Bermuda may be in trouble this weekend, as a major hurricane passes overhead.

Ernesto will stay several hundred miles away from New Jersey, as it makes its closest pass on Sunday. There are two (and only two) potential impacts we face:
1.) Rough surf and an elevated risk of rip currents at the Jersey Shore. This one is practically a definite.
2.) Increased tropical moisture, which could enhance this weekend's rain chances. I'm less convinced this will be a factor.

Wednesday

A dome of high pressure remains in control of New Jersey's atmosphere. Although it is not all that strong, which is why some clouds and isolated showers have popped up along the way.

We will see lots of sunshine throughout Wednesday, with some extra clouds building by late afternoon.

Wednesday morning temperatures are mainly in the 60s — not quite as cool as Tuesday morning, owing to a scattered blanket of clouds.

Wednesday afternoon's high temperature is forecast to reach the lower to mid 80s. Warm, but still not humid

I can not completely rule out a stray shower or sprinkle in the late afternoon and early evening hours. We are talking about a 10-minute spritz, and 98% of the state will stay dry. Overall, not a big deal — do not ruin your day because of it.

Wednesday night looks good too. Skies became mainly clear, and temperatures dip into the 60s once again.

Thursday

Another seasonably warm day. Under partly sunny skies, highs will reach the mid 80s. That is right on the normal for mid-August.

And that is really all I have to say about Thursday — another lovely summer day.

Friday

We will start to see changes on Friday. But the daytime hours look fine.

Skies will become mostly cloudy. And eventually, humidity levels will increase to the "moderate" range. Still not steamy or tropical, just noticeably stickier.

High temperatures will once again hit the seasonable mid 80s.

Late Friday, we could see some showers and thunderstorms come into view. Given the latest guidance, there is a good chance those raindrops even hold off until after Midnight.

Saturday & Sunday

I am lumping these two days together in the forecast, because the exact timing of our impending rain chances is unclear. We absolutely will get wet this weekend. But there absolutely will be breaks of dry weather along the way too.

Throughout the course of the weekend, we will probably see three or four waves of rain affect the Garden State. With breaks of dry weather in between — neither day is a washout.

Having said that, I suspect Saturday will be the better day, with the best chance of dry weather in the middle of the day. Sunday's best shot at staying dry will be late afternoon. Both of those time periods will hopefully feature some peeks of sun alongside mainly dry weather.

Because of the clouds, raindrops, and some cooler air in play, high temperatures will come down a bit, to around 80 degrees (give or take). It is going to get pretty humid again, especially on Sunday as the dew point surges to around 70.

So not a perfect weekend, but I hope you will still find some time for your favorite outdoor activities. I look forward to pinpointing the wet weather timeline more in the coming days.

The Extended Forecast

Those weekend rain chances may linger into Monday too. But we should see a substantial drying trend for early next week. Monday and Tuesday have the potential to be nice summer days, with highs in the 80s and moderate humidity.

Forecast models show a cold front arriving around the middle of next week, with another burst of rain and then drier air.

And then our weather may go dead silent again through the final week of August. Of course, any streak of dry, pleasantly warm weather is dependent on what happens in the tropics. We are coming up on the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season in the next month.