Of Course it’s Going to Rain in NJ This Weekend – When, How Much?
The Bottom Line
This fall, weekend weather has been pretty awful. For the last five weekends in a row (since September 9-10), we have seen measurable rainfall in New Jersey. And it is becoming clear that our upcoming weekend will follow the trend, making it six in a row.
For the next three days, we will continue to enjoy bright, seasonable, dry weather across New Jersey.
But this is the time to start seriously focusing on the weekend. And a piece of the weekend still looks pretty miserable. Rainy, maybe even stormy, windy along the coast, cloudy, and miserably cool.
The biggest question I have heard lately: Can we salvage any piece of the weekend this time around? And I will answer "Yes" — I believe the weekend will be bookended by "mainly" dry weather. Your outdoor plans will be in trouble from Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.
Looking good, no complaints. If you ever wanted to know what a typical mid-October day is "supposed to" feel like, here you go. Slightly warmer and brighter than Tuesday, with calmer winds too.
The day begins with chilly temperatures, mainly in the 40s. So you'll want a jacket or sweater early on. But you can probably ditch it later, as mostly sunny skies warms us up to around 70 degrees.
Let's do it again. I'll call Thursday partly sunny, but our weather stays dry and mild. Highs will once again reach for the 70-degree mark. (Leaning toward the warm side, as long as skies are sunny enough.)
I think we will squeeze out one more reasonably pleasant day on Friday. In fact, I have removed the "slight chance of a shower" verbiage I had been using in previous forecasts.
While Friday may begin with sunshine, clouds will steadily increase throughout the afternoon. Because of that, and a shift to a northwesterly wind, high temperatures will come down a little. Mid 60s is only slightly below normal for this time of year.
Rain should hold off until after Midnight Friday night.
A storm system currently over the Pacific Northwest will enter New Jersey's neighborhood on Saturday. Combined with the energy of a developing low pressure off our coastline, we are looking at another extended round of inclement weather.
Is is going to be a crazy, dangerous storm? No. Will everyone in New Jersey get wet this weekend? Probably.
Saturday morning may fare OK, as the latest guidance puts only spotty to scattered showers over the state. There will be pockets of dry weather to start the day.
By lunchtime Saturday, however, it looks like rain will become more widespread, with pockets of heavy stuff developing. So the afternoon and evening hours look particularly wet. Rumbles of thunder are possible. And as the aforementioned coastal low deepens, it may turn windy along the coast around dinnertime Saturday.
Rainfall totals may exceed an inch in spots, where it really pours. Top wind gusts look to reach the 30+ mph range. We will have to watch the tide forecast for the potential of minor category coastal flooding too. (Again, overall I'm not worried about "severe" impacts here — just soggy weather.)
Meanwhile, Saturday is going to remain cloudy and miserably cool. For most of the state, temperatures will not climb beyond the 50s. We might see some 60s along the southern coast.
Sunday's forecast is trending better. But definitely not perfect.
Showers will probably linger over NJ through at least mid-morning Sunday. Light and scattered stuff, eventually tapering off.
I am optimistic we will see drier weather take over from Sunday midday through the afternoon. Maybe even some sporadic breaks of sun. But I can't completely rule out a shower or sprinkle at any time. It will still be breezy, especially near the coast. And high temperatures will still stay on the cool side, around 60 degrees.
The Extended Forecast
This weekend's storm system will dawdle long enough to keep unsettled weather over New Jersey on Monday (spotty sprinkles) and Tuesday (scattered showers). Both days will again feature high temperatures around 60 degrees.
Then we should dry out, clear out, and warm up a bit through midweek.
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