Soggy Weather and Wild Temperature Swings for NJ This Week
Your definitive weather forecast: chance of a shower or thunderstorm through next Tuesday. High temperatures between 60 and 90.
Haha, I wish I was kidding! I've got a wildly unsettled and variable forecast for you this week. While there will be some breaks in the rainfall action and maybe even a few breaks of sunshine along the way, you'd be wise to carry your umbrella for the foreseeable future.
Let me give you a quick rundown before I launch into the day-by-day forecast narrative:
--Best Chance of Dry Weather: Monday daytime, Tuesday morning-afternoon, Thursday afternoon-evening
--Best Chance of Heavy/Steady Rain: Tuesday late afternoon-evening, Wednesday (South Jersey), Friday (possible washout)
--Total Rainfall (through Sunday): 1 to 3 inches
--Warmest Day: Tuesday (80s, 90 is possible)
--Coolest Day: Wednesday (60s)
Monday actually appears to be our best shot of dry weather for the entire week. While there will be some fog, mist, drizzle, and sprinkles around Monday morning, skies look drier through the midday and afternoon hours. Clouds will rule the sky all day (mostly cloudy), although we might see a few breaks of sun (partly sunny). You may notice an uptick in humidity too, as dew points climb into the 60s.
High temperatures will reach the lower to mid 70s for most of New Jersey — certainly warmer than Sunday, and pretty close to normal for mid-May. The Jersey Shore will end up cooler, likely in the 60s.
A weak disturbance looks to cause a few showers to drift into the Garden State Monday night. There could be a few rumbles of thunder, and some fog may develop by Tuesday morning. Overnight lows will only dip to about 60 to 65 degrees, given the rising humidity in the air.
Most of Tuesday looks dry too, and I'll even go so far to call it partly sunny. It will be a warm and humid taste of summer, as highs climb into the 80s for almost the entire state. 90 degrees is not out of the question!
We'll have to keep an eye on the sky after about 4 p.m. Tuesday, as a line of thunderstorms is likely. Given the heat and moisture in the air, these storms could easily exceed strong or severe limits — a brief period of heavy rain is almost a guarantee, and wind/hail is possible.
Wednesday is a big question mark in the forecast. If the aforementioned front stalls over New Jersey, it's going to be a rainy, drizzly day. The best chance for this extended period of wet weather will be the southern half of New Jersey. But again, it's not a guarantee — the GFS and Euro models say wet, but the NAM model is considerably drier.
Showers will wrap up Thursday morning, and then we'll hopefully get another dry period by Thursday afternoon. Skies will remain mostly cloudy, although temperatures should rise into the 70s. (80 is not out of the question, if we get a little bit of sunshine and the sea breeze isn't too fierce.)
Friday reads as a washout, with another batch of rain on the way. And I have to keep at least a daily shower chance in the forecast through the weekend and early next week too. Although I do not want to venture a guess at the timeline just yet — let's see how the next few days play out first.