The Countdown to New Jersey’s Next Big Cooldown Is On
While the Garden State's weather will stay mild for now, much colder temperatures have appeared at the tail end of the 5-Day Forecast.
Here are your weather headlines for Wednesday, November 16, 2016...
Pleasant by Day, Sprinkles by Night
To be blunt, I am flabbergasted by how much rain was able to fall over the northeast quadrant of New Jersey on Tuesday. From Monmouth County to Bergen County, numerous reports of 2+ inches came in following periods of truly torrential rainfall. This coastal storm system had to be incredibly efficient at pumping moisture into our atmosphere, as North Jersey dew points were in the basement Monday and Tuesday morning. I don't mind busting this particular forecast - the heavy rain fell right where we need it, within the ~39% of NJ in "Severe Drought" at this time.
As of Wednesday morning, the rain is long gone and skies have cleared out on schedule. Where it rained heavily, the ground is still wet and temperatures haven't fallen below 40 degrees. Most of the state, where only light rain fell on Tuesday, is chillier with morning temps in the 30s.
I believe Wednesday's sky will feature more sun than clouds, and it will turn into a pleasant mid-November day. Highs are forecast to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s.
We're tracking a weak front that will push across New Jersey Wednesday evening, between about 6 p.m. and 2 a.m. An increase in cloud cover is likely. A rain shower or sprinkle is possible, although I highly doubt we'll see anything more significant than that. Overnight temperatures will fall into the lower to mid 40s. While a few upper 30s are possible, we should stay above freezing.
Nice Few Days
As high pressure takes over our atmosphere, a series of pleasant, mild weather will take over for a few days. Skies will quickly clear to sunshine on Thursday, as high temperatures climb to around 60 degrees. (The aforementioned weak cold front won't do much to temperatures.)
Friday looks even warmer, with highs in the lower to mid 60s.
And we'll enjoy one more good weather day on Saturday, with highs potentially reaching the 60s. (Although North Jersey may not warm past the upper 50s.)
The Big Cooldown
A strong cold front will be marching across the country through the rest of the week. That front will have some cold air bottled up behind it, and is forecast to enter New Jersey starting Saturday night. The change in our weather as the Thanksgiving week begins will be quite dramatic.
Some light rain is possible with the front, although available moisture will be a problem. As temperatures drop sharply by Sunday morning, some snowflakes will be possible in North Jersey. I'm not going to rule out a light accumulation, if the ground isn't too warm and/or wet. But to be clear, this storm will not be a significant snowmaker for New Jersey.
The big deal from this front will be the fierce wind and cooldown that will kick in Sunday and Monday. Sunday's forecast calls for mix clouds, wind gusts to 40 mph, and high temperatures only around 50 degrees. Skies will clear to sunshine for Monday, but temperatures will get even colder. Monday's high temperatures won't climb beyond the mid to upper 40s, with wind gusts to 50 mph.
Oh yes, New Jersey. Winter is coming.