The Bottom Line

We made it — Ian is outta here! After six days of gloomy, soggy weather, we now enter a stretch of six days of mainly sunny, dry weather. From one extreme to another!

Both Thursday and Friday will feature bright weather and comfortable temperatures. However, there is one thing to watch in the forecast. A cold front arriving Friday afternoon will kick up a brisk breeze for a few hours, drive in some spotty rain showers, and knock back temperatures heading into the weekend.

October is about the time (most of) New Jersey experiences the first frost of the season. And that may just happen for part of the day in the coming days.

Thursday

Skies have cleared nicely overnight. But we still have some humidity in the air. And plenty of ground-level moisture too. (Read: Puddles.) So we are starting Thursday morning with patches of dense fog around. I have seen visibility numbers as low as a quarter-mile, so that may slow you down a bit. Fog should lift as temperatures rise, gone by around 9 a.m.

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The rest of Thursday looks fantastic. For the first time in exactly a week, I can say the day will be completely rain-free.

Abundant sunshine will be bookended by some fair-weather clouds early and late Thursday. Winds will be calm. And temperatures will be mild, reaching about 70 to 75 degrees Thursday afternoon.

The coastal flooding threat has also come to an end. There isn't a single gauge along the Jersey Shore forecast to reach flood stage at high tide. Good news all around.

Thursday night also looks pleasant and uneventful. Low temps will only dip into the 50s. That is actually mild for early October, and you might get by without a jacket.

Friday

The day will start off nice enough. Temperatures will return to the 70s, as skies progress from mostly sunny to partly sunny.

But Friday is also a cold front day. As a leading edge of cooler, drier air pushes into New Jersey Friday afternoon, we will feel three weather impacts:

1.) A brisk breeze will briefly kick up starting Friday afternoon. For a few hours, gusts may hit 20 to 30 mph, out of the northwest.

2.) Isolated to spotty rain showers are possible, mainly from central to southern New Jersey. Most of the state stays dry, but the chance of raindrops is worth mentioning.

3.) Temperatures step another step backward heading into the weekend.

Saturday

Saturday morning's low temperatures are tricky. If skies clear quickly enough and winds calm down enough, we could see some 30s in NW NJ. Potentially cold enough for some frost. (It does not need to get to "freezing" 32 degrees for frosty ice crystals to form — in calm conditions, 36 or 37 degrees is usually cold enough.) At the very least, we'll see widespread 40s to start the weekend. Definitely chilly.

And Saturday afternoon will be about 15 degrees cooler than Friday afternoon. Highs will only reach the upper 50s. But, in contrast to our recent streak of raw and dreary weather, it will be sunny and dry on Saturday. So the air will feel cool, crisp, and autumnal. Not a bad thing — just definitely "jacket weather".

Sunday

Sunday morning will be chilly. 30s and 40s, again with the threat of frost for the coldest corners of the state (at least).

Sunday afternoon will be more seasonable, with highs pushing into the mid 60s. Again, with mostly sunny skies, dry weather, and a light westerly breeze.

Monday & Beyond

Upper 60s on Monday. Lower 70s for Tuesday and Wednesday. All of the above with sunshine and no rain. Great.

Our next chance of rain and another cooldown could come from a cold front late next week, around the Thursday-Friday time frame. Every autumn cold front will deliver the same things — rain, wind, and a cooldown.

There are two tropical developments in the Atlantic basin right now. Tropical Depression #12 is way out near Africa, and still forecast to be a nothing-burger. Another tropical wave in the southern Caribbean shows signs of development and strengthening, before charging toward Central America. Neither storm will threaten New Jersey's sky or surf.

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