Tuesday NJ Weather: Hazy, Hot, and Humid With Hit-or-miss Storms

The Bottom Line

The three necessary ingredients for thunderstorm development: Energy, Moisture, and Lift. In other words, Heat, Humidity, and a Cold Front. All three elements will be in our neighborhood Tuesday. So we have to talk about the return of potentially strong, soaker thunderstorms. That is a precarious situation, as the ground is still super-saturated after heavy rain last weekend.

Tuesday's storms will be isolated to spotty though — not everyone will see one. The rest of the day will be sunny and hot and humid. Hazy too, especially with Canadian wildfire smoke in play.

The rest of the workweek is pretty status quo — steamy and potentially stormy. I like what I'm seeing for the weekend — less humid and storm-free. Fingers crossed that outlook holds.

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Tuesday

From heat and humidity, to wildfire smoke, to the chance of thunderstorms, there are lots of weather nuisances in play for Tuesday. Each of them relatively minor and/or limited. But certainly worth talking about.

Once again, the day begins with pockets of fog and thick humidity in the air. Morning temperatures in the 70s will rise into the upper 80s to around 90 by Tuesday afternoon. The Shore will probably end up a bit cooler, but 80+ degrees is still likely for mainland beaches.

The day will be dominated by hazy sunshine, with some clouds building through the afternoon.

An Air Quality Alert Code Orange has been issued for New Jersey on Tuesday. Technically, it's due to ground-level ozone, an effect of summertime heat. But smoke particulates from wildfires in western Canada will be in our atmosphere too. Those especially sensitive to poor air quality — the very old, the very young, and those with heart/lung issues — will want to limit time outdoors.

The steamy air will be ripe for isolated to spotty thunderstorms, as a weak cold front rolls in Tuesday afternoon. Don't go canceling your plans — this is not an everybody, all-day kind of thing. But it is "conditional" — if a storm pops, it is likely to be strong or severe.

I am concerned about the resurgence of flash flooding, especially given the saturated ground from recent heavy rains. Gusty wind and hail are also possible from any storm that pops.

Model guidance favors the eastern edge of the state (i.e. the Shore) as the most likely spot for thunderstorms to form. But it's still a good idea for everyone in New Jersey to keep an eye on the sky throughout Tuesday.

Tuesday night will be clear and muggy, as thermometers descend to around 70 degrees.

Wednesday

That aforementioned cold front will have minimal impact to our hot, sticky air mass. Temperatures slide back a couple degrees on Wednesday, but it is still going to feel summery and sultry.

Look for highs around 85 to 90 degrees, under a mix of sun and clouds.

The chance of rain is lower on Wednesday, but not zero. A shower is possible at some point, especially in the southern half of the state, as a storm system flies by. Severe weather and flooding are not expected this time around.

Thursday

Thursday reads as another typically warm and humid summer day, with high temperatures in the mid 80s and dew points in the lower 70s.

Eventually, a cold front will drive in one or two more rounds of scattered thunderstorms. Possibly starting Thursday afternoon — although the latest forecast models back off on daytime rain. More likely, we'll get wet Thursday night into early Friday.

Friday

Friday may start with ongoing scattered thunderstorms, as a cold front works to clear the coast. The most likely scenario puts dry conditions over New Jersey by Friday afternoon.

While skies will remain mostly cloudy, a refreshing northwesterly breeze will usher in drier air. That means humidity levels will start to drop off Friday afternoon. It's still going to be hot, near 90 degrees. But getting rid of some of that steaminess in the air is always a good thing.

The Weekend & Beyond

As of now, the penultimate weekend of July looks great. I currently favor a storm-free and not-that-humid outlook. High temperatures will be reasonable, in the lower-mid 80s on Saturday and mid-upper 80s on Sunday. Sunshine and sea breezes should win out.

Although Summer 2023 has been devoid of extreme and/or dangerous heat so far, I don't think we've had a perfect weather weekend yet. If the latest forecast holds, we have potential here — fingers crossed.