Umbrellas and Short Sleeves: Springlike Weather On the Way for NJ
The Bottom Line... Several weak atmospheric disturbances will ride through New Jersey over the next four days (through Friday), delivering several shots of light rain. However, the timing of each round of wet weather is very much up in the air. I'm going to try to break down the timeline as I see it, but please keep in mind this is an especially rough sketch of a forecast. If you're really concerned about getting wet over the next 96 hours, I'd highly recommend carrying an umbrella with you.
As of this writing, Tuesday morning, skies are already mostly cloudy. We're starting the day with some cold temperatures, mostly in the 20s. This will probably be our last widespread freeze in New Jersey for at least a week.
At some point, rain showers will push across the western border of New Jersey — possibly Tuesday morning, more likely Tuesday afternoon. Even with the threat of raindrops, high temperatures should come close to 50 degrees across most of the state. Just like Monday, North Jersey and the Jersey Shore will be held closer to mid 40s.
Models currently show a period of steadier (but still generally light) rain will arrive Tuesday night. In the higher elevations of NW NJ only temperatures close to the freezing mark could allow for some snowflakes and/or ice pellets mixing in with the rain. Little to no accumulations and travel impacts are expected.
Wednesday will begin with more scattered rain showers. If all goes well, we'll dry out a bit by the afternoon hours. It will be cloudy, but we should finally get a taste of seasonable temperatures in the 50s.
The warmup continues on Thursday, although it looks like the truly warmest air won't bubble up through the entire state. Look for high temperatures near 50 degrees in North Jersey, around 60 degrees in Central Jersey, and possibly close to 70 in South Jersey on Thursday afternoon. It's not a perfect forecast though, as our weather will remain unsettled with grey skies and a shower chance at any time.
Friday looks to be the warmest day of the week, but also the most complicated. A morning cold front looks to push one more round of rain showers (and maybe even a thunderstorm) through the Garden State. Then, through Friday afternoon, skies will clear with a gusty wind kicking up. (My math shows wind gusts up to about 35 mph.) There will be a lag between the frontal passage and the ensuing cooldown, so I'm hopeful that Friday's temperatures will still be in the 60s. 70 degrees will once again be a possibility.
The Easter Weekend starts with sunshine, a continuing brisk wind, and mild temperatures around 60 degrees on Saturday.
One model (the GFS) shows a round of snow and rain showers for early Easter Sunday, although I'm not totally convinced of the precise timing and impacts. The rest of the day looks mostly cloudy, breezy, and cooler with forecast high temps in the lower 50s.