A November-ish Weather Week for NJ: Cool to Wet to Cold
Happy Monday! Our weather this weekend was calm, but cool — the growing season officially ended for most of the Garden State, with our first widespread frost(s) and freeze(s) of the season.
The week ahead has a few minor weather headlines, but one big bullet point looms for the end of the week. The door to the arctic will slide open, leading to even colder temperatures arriving for the weekend. Could there be some frozen precipitation to talk about too?
We are waking up to some definitively cold temperatures on this Monday morning. Interior New Jersey has fallen into the 20s and 30s. The only place protected from the cold is the Jersey Shore, thanks to water temperatures in the upper 50s. That provides barrier islands in particular with a bit of insulation, leading to temperatures in the 40s to start the day.
Just like the weekend, you'll enjoy plenty of sunshine throughout the first half of Monday. I suspect some clouds will visit the sky later on. And just like the weekend, we're looking at high temperatures in the mid 50s or so — about 5 degrees below-normal for early November. The only chance for inclement weather will be a few sprinkles potentially clipping far North Jersey (Warren-Sussex-Morris-Passaic counties) Monday afternoon.
Thanks to increased cloud cover, Monday night will not be as cold as the past few nights. In fact, we should avoid the frost/freeze, as lows only dip into the 40s statewide.
Tuesday looks like a mostly cloudy day, as high temps climb to about 60 degrees. Models have trended wetter for Tuesday, so it looks like we could see isolated to scattered rain showers throughout the day. (Depending on which model you prefer, rainfall totals will range from a few drops to a quarter-inch — I favor the drier solution.) You'll probably get wet at some point, but it should not be a washout of a day.
We'll flip back to sunshine and cooler temperatures on Wednesday. A probable frost in the morning, with afternoon highs limited to the lower 50s.
On Thursday, skies become cloudier and winds become breezier. Highs will hover in the middle-of-the-road mid 50s. As a cold front arrives late Thursday, we could see a few showers — but that front looks pretty moisture-starved, so I don't expect substantial precipitation.
There is one thing you'll definitely notice from that front — a blast of the coldest air of the season so far. Winds will become a bit gusty for early Friday. And high temperatures will only reach the lower 40s — 15 to 20 degrees below seasonal normals! According to our current forecast, Friday could be New Jersey's coldest day since April 5. It will remain breezy and dry, with a mix of sun and clouds.
Don't expect much warmup for the weekend, with mid 40s on Saturday and upper 40s on Sunday. A close call by a coastal storm system will introduce clouds (but not rain) for the first half of the weekend.
And finally, for the first time this season, I have to mention the potential for some frozen precipitation here in the weather blog. Yes, ladies and gentlemen, we're talking about our first snowflakes of the season! Two chances worth mentioning:
1.) On the backside of Thursday evening's front, as temperatures nosedive, you might see some flurries flying around. (Especially in North Jersey.)
2.) Both the GFS and European models show a storm system next Monday (Veteran's Day) producing widespread snow across New Jersey. (Maybe even some accumulations?) Please note it is way too early to nail this down with any specificity or certainty.
We haven't done this in a while, but let me remind you that I play out winter storm forecasts slowly and carefully. For now, I'll only promote the idea that next Monday's situation is worth watching. If things hold steady, we'll be looking to firm up the accumulation chance and timing forecast around Wednesday-Thursday. And then we'll aim to plug in more specific details Friday-Saturday.