The Bottom Line

While Friday might be one of the nicest days of the entire summer, I have some growing concerns for the weekend. Specifically Saturday, as our weather becomes steamier and stormier. Yes, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible as several shortwaves pass through New Jersey. And yes, you are going to sweat throughout this final weekend of June.

Friday

Stellar sunshine, wonderful warmth, and lovely low humidity. A great combination in the summertime. The chance for a popup shower around 4-5 p.m. is not zero — but it's close. High temperatures will range from about 80 at the beaches to mid-upper 80s inland.

Both clouds and humidity will increase Friday night, leading to increased rain chances by sunrise Saturday morning.

Saturday

Not nearly as perfect a weather day, as a couple batches of potentially strong thunderstorms are expected to slide through the state. The first round of rain will come in the early morning hours, between about 5 a.m. and 11 a.m. Following lingering showers and clouds, a second round of strong to severe thunderstorms is possible around late afternoon, from 4 p.m. to 10 p.m. Strong 60+ mph wind gusts will be our biggest concern here, along with heavy rain, small hail, and frequent lightning.

Saturday's severe weather outlook puts most of New Jersey in a low to moderate risk for dangerous thunderstorms. (NOAA / SPC)

Your outdoor plans won't be a total washout for Saturday, with mostly cloudy skies and breezy conditions through the middle part of the day. It will be very warm and humid, with high temperatures in the mid 80s. (If we see a pop of sunshine, I wouldn't rule out thermometers pushing closer to 90.)

Sunday

Probably the brighter, better day of the weekend. But definitely steamy, with high temps near 90 degrees (away from the coast). Skies will average partly sunny across the day. A few spotty showers and thunderstorms are possible — but the rain does not look as widespread or intense as on Saturday.

Monday

A weak cold front will knock back dew points and humidity, leading to a more comfortable heat through early next week. Monday looks bright and sunny, with high temperatures around the upper 80s. A pleasant, although very warm, summer day.

Tuesday

Also looking pretty good, with mostly sunny skies and mid 80s. A few late-day showers are possible.

The Extended Forecast

We'll dive into July with warmth and semi-unsettled weather. I'm not 100% confident about the effects of a passing storm system on Wednesday. We'll probably see some rain — but I'm not ready to make a call on whether it's an all-day soaker, sporadic strong thunderstorms, or spotty showers. (We are in a growing rainfall deficit over the last 30 to 60 days and could really use some rain.)

Long-range forecasts for the extended 4th of July weekend are presently suggesting mainly dry, not-too-hot weather. But that 7-10 day forecast is no more accurate as a coin flip. Obviously, the holiday weekend forecast will be a huge focus for us next week.

Have a great weekend! Be safe and stay healthy, my friends.

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