June Begins With a Lovely, Warm, Less Muggy Wednesday for NJ
Lower humidity levels and seasonable warmth will make for much more comfortable weather conditions over the next few days for the Garden State.
Here are your weather headlines for Wednesday, June 1, 2016...
Slow Decline: Humidity, Temperatures
Welcome to June! It's the first day of climatological summer (we use even calendar months for record-keeping purposes). It's also the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season (even though we've already had two named tropical storms so far in 2016).
We're certainly starting June drier and more pleasant than we started the messy, moist month of May. A weak cold front pushing through New Jersey Wednesday morning will deliver a slightly cooler and drier air mass. Lower humidity is always a welcome sight in the summertime!
Wednesday's high temperatures should still reach the lower 80s much of the state. The ocean influence will likely keep the Jersey Shore cooler, topping out in the 70s. Skies will range between mostly and partly sunny.
Thursday also looks pleasant, again with comfortable humidity levels and slightly cooler (but still seasonable) temperatures. Morning lows are expected to drop into the lower 50s, while afternoon highs should reach the mid to upper 70s. It might be noticeably cooler along the coast (in the 60s), if a southeasterly breeze comes to fruition. Clouds will increase throughout the day, and a stray late-day shower or storm can't be ruled out for Thursday.
Chance of Rain
As the weekend approaches, so will a weak system that looks to bring New Jersey our next widespread rain chance on Friday.
Throughout the day, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible. At the moment, the best timing and location for the rain looks to be in the morning to early afternoon and mostly in North Jersey - but that's an educated guess, at best. I should stress that Friday is not going to be a washout by any means.
However, there is a slight concern that heavier rain may enter the forecast for Friday. And that concern is named Bonnie.
Once a tropical storm, Bonnie is now officially a Post-Tropical Cyclone. According to the National Hurricane Center as of this writing, Bonnie is hovering over the North-South Carolina state line, moving very slowly to the northeast at 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 10 mph.
Yes. 10 mph. One-zero. You can count the miles per hour on your fingers.
Even though the wind is minimal, Bonnie has been a big rainmaker in the Southeast U.S. And as, I've discussed in my weather blog, Bonnie contributed to New Jersey's tropical deluges on Memorial Day.
Again, Bonnie is only a slight concern for NJ at this time. Current models show the remnants of Bonnie will be pushed away from the Atlantic coast just in time to negate the storm's pool of moisture influence on Friday's rain chances. If the storm does not kick out to sea, there could easily be pockets of heavy rain in the Garden State on Friday. But again, as long as the current forecast holds, Friday's showers and thunderstorms will be run-of-the-mill and unimpressive.
I hate forecasting rain on summertime weekends. Yes, occasionally rain needs to fall in New Jersey. But I would highly prefer the 15 weekends from Memorial Day to Labor Day (inclusive) have picture perfect weather!
While our first weekend of June doesn't look completely dry, the news isn't all bad.
A lingering shower will be possible for Saturday morning, a remnant of Friday's scattered rain. After that, we should squeak out a very nice Saturday with a mix of sun and clouds and warm high temperatures around 80 degrees. Look for 70s along the Jersey Shore.
Sunday will start off OK, as skies progress from partly to mostly cloudy. It will get a bit breezy and a bit cooler for Sunday, with highs only in the mid to upper 70s. That's still near-normal for early June, but a noticeable step downhill from Saturday.
The change from dry to wet weather is expected later Sunday. To put a finer point on the timing, I'd start watching the sky and keeping the umbrella handy from Sunday late afternoon onward. The steadiest, heaviest rain is expected from Sunday late evening through Monday early morning. (We'll nail down that timing further as the weekend approaches.)
After the rain clears out, the weather forecast for early next week looks pleasant.