The Bottom Line

We did not hit 90 degrees over the weekend — although several spots hit 89 on Sunday (including Basking Ridge, Hamilton, Haworth, and Hillsborough). We'll almost certainly hit 90+ somewhere in the state Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, which means we might be embarking upon our first heat wave of the year. Yes indeed, we're facing a steamy week with very warm temperatures, moderate-to-high humidity levels, and a daily chance of spotty thunderstorms.

Monday

It's sticky, but not stifling to start the week with AM temperatures in the 60s. High temperatures will reach about 85 to 90 degrees. Even mainland beaches will pop to about 80 degrees, although barrier islands might get stuck in the 70s. The heat index should stay below 95, just shy of "dangerous heat" territory.

We'll have lots of hazy sunshine overhead. And a non-zero rain chance, as a few isolated thunderstorms potentially popup in the late afternoon to early evening hours. Again, isolated — that means the vast majority of the state will remain dry.

Tuesday

Another muggy start, near 70. And another very warm day, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Skies will be partly sunny. Most importantly, our best chance of rain this week will come Tuesday evening, as a line of strong thunderstorms sweeps from west to east across the state.

Wednesday

Let's do it again. Sun and clouds, hot and humid, with highs near 90. Spotty showers and thunderstorms are possible, as a weak cold front arrives late-day.

Thursday

The effects of that cold front will be noticeable, but not substantial. Humidity will dial back quite a bit, and temperatures will be slightly cooler — we're talking mid 80s instead of near 90. With increasing sunshine, I think Thursday will turn into a pleasant summer day.

Friday

Also looks good, with seasonably warm temperatures, reasonable humidity, mostly sunny skies, and a stiff breeze. Our latest forecast puts high temperatures in the lower 80s.

The Extended Forecast

The weekend outlook is wishy-washy, with a big discrepancy between the GFS and European models. GFS shows a warm (but not quite hot) weekend with highs in the 80s and some storms early Sunday morning. The Euro, however, pumps out some significant heat with highs in the 90s, followed by some stormy weather during the day Sunday. One thing is abundantly clear in our long-range models, referenced in the headline to this post — the heat and humidity are here to stay for a while.

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