New Jersey Governor’s Race: Poll That You Can Trust [Op-Ed]

The polling in the 2021 race for Governor of New Jersey was very inaccurate.

The first poll of the 2025 race looked like more of the same … showing Democrat Mikie Sherrill with a 13-point lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli.

No way that this is accurate.

Ciattarelli Initial Poll Is More Like It

Ciattarelli’s internal polling in the 2021 Governor’s race was intellectual honest and accurate.

His first internal polling of 2025 has it:

• Sherrill 45 percent
• Ciattarelli 42 percent
• Undecided 12 percent

This makes much more sense. It’s the beginning of the campaign. President Trump ran close to Kamala Harris in 2024. Ciattarelli earned 48 percent of the vote in the General Election of 2021 versus incumbent Governor Phil Murphy.

I confidently declare that this is a poll that you can trust, simply because all of the polling in 2021 was grossly inaccurate… While Ciattarelli’s polling was accurate.

Ciattarelli consistently proclaimed that the 2021 election was a margin of error race … which it was with Murphy winning over Ciattarelli by a margin of 51 to 48 percent.

Ciattarelli was right and all of the so-called objective polls were wrong four years ago.

Ciattarelli Campaign Consultant Chris Russell

Russell shared the results of the latest Ciattarelli internal polling following the release of a partisan Democrat poll which was strategically released just hours after the Primary Election concluded.

The Ciattarelli poll was conducted by National Research, Inc., who said:

The 2025 campaign for Governor begins as a jump-ball, with Democratic Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli 45%-42%, with 12% undecided. This lead is well within the survey's margin of error, according to the survey.

 

Key Tabular Breakdowns

• Ciattarelli leads Sherrill 44%-36% among unaffiliated voters.
• The race is tied among self-reported working and middle-class voters.
• Sherrill holds a lead among the upper middle- and upper-class voters.
• Among voters who cast a ballot in 2021, Sherrill leads by one point, 44%-43%.

By Comparison, Here is the Mikie Sherrill Poll

Read More: Looks Like ‘Bad’ Polling, Again In New Jersey Race for Governor

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A “Change” Election?

This is taken directly from the Ciattarelli commissioned survey:

Make no mistake that this is a "CHANGE" election and Ciattarelli is the CHANGE candidate. A majority of New Jersey voters (54%) believe that the state is heading in the wrong direction, while only 33% believe things in New Jersey are going in the right direction. Notably, Ciattarelli leads Sherrill by a whopping 72%-14% margin.

Mikie Made Millions of Dollars Trading Stocks, While a Member of Congress

Ciattarelli polled this question to take the temperature of the citizens of New Jersey.

Does this issue matter to New Jersey voters?

According to Ciattarelli’s internal polling, it appears that it does matter.’

The survey question reads as follows:

Please tell me if the following factual information makes you more likely or less likely to vote for Mikie Sherrill for Governor of New Jersey...

“Mikie Sherrill tripled her net worth to over ten million dollars in the last six years while serving in Congress. Sherrill made millions of dollars trading stocks - including both buying and selling shares of several defense contractors while she was privy to non-public information as a member of the House Armed Services Committee. Sherrill was even fined for breaking a law against insider trading and conflict of interest when she failed to disclose certain stock trades,” according to the Ciattarelli internal polling.

This will be a hard fought, close election.

Developing.