NJ Weather: Nice Thursday, Friday Wetter than Saturday
The Bottom Line
There is a big transition on the horizon. While Thursday will be another pleasant mid-October day, we continue to track a pair for storm systems affecting New Jersey in the Friday-Saturday time frame. They will combine to produce rain and wind, followed by a cooldown into next week.
Yes, I still expect this to be NJ's 7th consecutive weekend with measurable rain. But the forecast for Saturday is looking better, with wet conditions only expected for part of the day. In fact, rainfall will likely be more prolonged and totals will be higher on Friday.
Temperatures really tanked overnight, owing to crystal clear skies, dry air, and calm winds. So inland New Jersey is starting off close to the 40-degree mark. The Jersey Shore is closer to 50.
It will be another dry, mild day with highs pushing into the mid to upper 60s. Thursday morning looks bright and sunny, before clouds start increasing around mid-afternoon.
By Thursday night, mostly cloudy skies will combine with a slight uptick in humidity to prevent overnight temperatures. Lows will end up in the 50s, not the 40s.
You will need the umbrella on Friday. Especially along the eastern edge of the state (i.e. the coast), which looks to be the wettest part of the state. Up to an inch of rainfall is possible there.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are now likely throughout the Friday daytime hours. (I would put the overall window for rain between about 5 a.m. and 7 p.m.) It won't be a total washout, but definitely damp and dreary at times. Severe weather and flooding are unlikely, although localized downpours and rumbles of thunder are possible. Again, especially along the coast.
High temperatures on Friday will stay on the mild side, in the 60s. In between raindrops, it will stay pretty cloudy. And breezy too.
Although Friday night trends drier, there could still be a few lingering showers around.
So far this week, I have focused on two potential scenarios for Saturday. The first involving an extended period of steady to heavy rain. And the second putting only limited spotty showers over New Jersey. Well, I'm happy to say the forecast is trending toward the drier solution.
That means I believe rain will be limited to Saturday's morning hours. Some guidance even showers final raindrops exiting by 8 a.m. (I'm saying closer to Noon / lunchtime though, just in case.) The hit of rain will be fairly light and quick, with drying weather taking over for Saturday afternoon, evening, and night.
I expect very slow clearing late-day Saturday, with an increasingly gusty westerly wind. (Possible over 30 mph at night.) High temperatures on Saturday will reach about 60 degrees, give or take. But thermometers could start to fall off as cooler air leaks into the Garden State.
Dry, but blustery.
Our big transition concludes Sunday morning, as a secondary cold front really "shoves in" our new cool, dry air mass. Highs on Sunday will only reach the mid 50s, with mostly to partly cloudy skies. A gusty northwesterly wind will continue too, again possibly popping over 30 mph at times.
The Extended Forecast
The final full week of October will definitely start on a cool note. Both Monday and Tuesday could see morning lows in the 30s and afternoon highs only in the 50s. The first widespread frost of the year is possible if winds calm down enough to let temperatures settle at or below 37 degrees.
Sunshine will dominate next week, with a midweek warmup expected. We will not have to worry about our next storm system until the second half of next week, at the earliest.
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