NJ weather: Squeezing out one lovely day before another soaker

The Bottom Line

So far, May has been all about flip-flopping weather in New Jersey. From warm to cold. From dry to wet. From sun to clouds. And back again.

That pattern continues this week. We have some downright pleasant days coming up — Monday, Thursday, and Friday. But also a pair of storm systems, driving in more wet weather — Tuesday to Wednesday, and Friday night to Saturday.

The midweek rain storm will have an extra little kick to it — a river of deep moisture riding up along the Atlantic seaboard. That will help fuel heavier rain intensity, with rainfall totals expected to reach 1 to 2 inches across most of the state. Enough to cause some big puddles, and enough to raise some eyebrows.

Monday

Although Monday morning is chilly and has some patchy fog issues, it will be a pleasant day overall.

You'll probably want a jacket early on, with AM temps mainly in the 40s. High temperatures will reach into the lower 70s for most of New Jersey Monday afternoon, although northern and coastal areas will probably see 60s instead.

Skies will be bright — I'll call it mostly to partly sunny. Winds will be light. And our weather looks almost totally dry. (Some model guidance paints a very isolated shower over the NW corner of NJ around dinnertime.)

Monday night stays tranquil, with increasing clouds and seasonably cool temperatures in the 50s.

Tuesday

Our weather goes downhill again. But slowly.

You will probably catch some peeks of sun early Tuesday, before clouds fill in again. Showers may arrive as early as midday. And then the chance of pockets of steady rain will go up through the afternoon and evening hours.

Some forecast model solutions do paint Tuesday as a drier day, so you should probably play outdoor plans by ear.

HIgh temperatures should still end up on the warm side, in the mid 70s.

Wednesday

Wednesday looks wet, especially the first half of the day.

As we tap into some rich atmospheric moisture, pockets of heavy rain will probably soak the Garden State Wednesday morning. Conditions may improve a bit in the afternoon hours, but showers may linger right through dinnertime.

In total, 1 to 2 inches of rainfall seems like a good possibility for most of the state. A bit less to the north. And the potential is there for localized locales to top that impressive 2-inch mark.

Meanwhile, Wednesday will be another one of those cloudy and miserably cool days. High temperatures will only reach about 60 degrees, give or take.

Thursday

While the chance for a lingering chance is not impossible on Thursday, I favor a dry and pleasant forecast.

Under a mix of sun and clouds, high temperatures on Thursday should shoot back into the mid 70s. The more sunshine we see, and the less prominent a flip to southeasterly (on-shore) winds becomes, the warmer it will get.

Friday & Beyond

Friday's daytime hours also look good, although cloudier and slightly cooler, closer to 70 degrees.

Another storm system will impact New Jersey in the Friday night to Saturday time frame. Yes, another rainy period of weather coinciding with a weekend. The rainfall does not look quite as heavy as in the midweek storm, but some rainfall totals could still exceed an inch.

If all goes well, Sunday will clear out and warm up, making for an excellent end to the weekend.

There will be one or two storm systems next week, producing a couple more rain chances in New Jersey. I like what I see for the Memorial Day Weekend — but that is a long-range forecast and means next-to-nothing this early.