NJ Weather: Two More Summer-ish Days then Damp and Dreary
The Bottom Line
Only eight more days of summer left before we "fall" into autumn. And as we look at the rest of this week, we're looking at two more warm, humid, relatively pleasant days for Tuesday and Wednesday. That will be followed by a 36-hour period of unsettled, damp, and dreary weather for Thursday and Friday. If everything goes according to plan, the final weekend of summer should bring a return to fair skies.
A compact, but potent round of thunderstorms swept through New Jersey Monday evening, containing some heavy rain and gusty winds. There are some residual power outages and downed trees on this Tuesday morning.
Our weather has since dried out, although there is some patchy fog being reported, especially where it poured.
Look for mixed sun and clouds throughout Tuesday, with manageable humidity levels. Thermometers are starting the day in the 60s for all but the immediate coast.
We'll see a fairly wide temperature gradient through Tuesday afternoon, thanks to a front stalled over the northern sector of the state and a more prominent southeasterly ocean breeze. So North Jersey and the Jersey Shore will top out around the mid to upper 70s. Inland central and southern NJ will push into the unseasonably warm lower to mid 80s.
The day will be dry for the majority of the state. However, forecast models do show some spotty shower and thunderstorm activity in the northwest corner of the state between sunset and midnight Tuesday evening. I don't expect anything widespread, severe, or overly impactful.
Otherwise, Tuesday night will be partly cloudy. Patchy fog is possible. Low temperatures will end up on the sticky side, close to 70 degrees.
One more summery, very warm, humid day. High temperatures will shoot into the mid to upper 80s. (Even though the latest guidance has cooled temperatures by a degree or two, I think 90+ is still a possibility in a few spots.)
It will be partly sunny Wednesday, with a stiff southerly breeze occasionally popping over 20 mph.
Showers and thunderstorms may creep into North Jersey Wednesday evening.
Turning damp and dreary.
There are actually three factors in play, contributing to an unsettled forecast for both Thursday and Friday. 1.) An approaching cold front. 2.) A coastal storm system sliding just to our southeast. 3.) Residual tropical moisture from what is now Tropical Storm Nicholas.
Given the complicated setup, the timeline and impacts are still a bit hazy. But here's how I see things work out.
Pockets of light to moderate rain will push through New Jersey throughout the day Thursday. That's right, I don't see a lot of "heavy" stuff developing, with rainfall totals staying below an inch across NJ. A strong thunderstorm cell may push out a gusty of wind and some wicked lightning, but a widespread severe weather outbreak also seems unlikely.
At the moment, I also don't think Thursday will be a "total washout" — but, at the very least, it will be quite cloudy and damp. High temperatures will be held to the upper 70s, at best.
Not as wet as Thursday, but just as grey and cool. A few waves of showers and cloudy skies will keep highs in the mid 70s.
The Extended Forecast
If all goes well, that triple storm system exits as we begin the final weekend of summer. Optimistically, we'll clear to sunshine by Saturday afternoon, with high temps returning to the lower 80s. Turning into a very nice day.
Sunday looks warmer, in the mid-summer-ish mid 80s. Again with mostly sunny skies.
There are no significant storm systems on the horizon. But we'll have to continue watching the very active tropics for any imminent threats.