Steamy and Stormy: Front-loaded Weather Week for NJ
The weekend transitioned from beautiful summer weather, to thunderstorms and much-needed rain, to a Sunday afternoon of high humidity. As we begin the new workweek, we've got two more days of active weather ahead. There is a payoff for all the sweat and umbrellas though — I'm pleased to report we have a few truly spectacular days coming up! Keep reading...
You can feel the heat already on this Monday morning. The majority of New Jersey is starting the new workweek in the 70s, with some 60s in the coolest spots. But it's not a heat wave, just a one-day heat... spurt? (Haha)
It's going to be a sticky, steamy, and summery day with most high temperatures expected to climb into the lower 90s. It's probably one of those days where even the beaches are toasty warm in the 80s too. (Although the sea breeze should still help cool the sand a little bit.) The heat index ("feels like" or "apparent" temperature) could approach 100 degrees during the heat of the day.
The National Weather Service has issued a Heat Advisory for the NYC metro area, including five counties in northeastern New Jersey: Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic, and Union. The advisory suggests we'll be right on the edge of dangerous heat from Noon to 6 p.m. Monday.
In addition to the heat and humidity, we'll be watching the skies from about 3 p.m. to 8 p.m. for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Our weather models have flip-flopped significantly over the past few days, about how widespread those storms will be. I'm leaning more toward an "isolated" or forecast, given the latest guidance. And, because our atmosphere will be so juicy, any storm that does fire could contain localized downpours and some wicked lightning.
After sunset, any showers and/or thunderstorms should pulse down quickly. It will be partly cloudy and quite muggy overnight, with most low temperatures dipping into the mid 70s.
No matter where in the Garden State you live, Tuesday will be an active (i.e. stormy and wet) weather day. We'll start off quiet — I think you'll get through the Tuesday morning commute dry and unscathed. (Although potentially drenched in sweat given warm temps and continuing high humidity.) Our next storm system, a strong cold front, is scheduled to arrive as early as Tuesday late morning in NW NJ and Tuesday early afternoon further south/east.
That front will likely deliver pockets of very heavy rain to New Jersey through Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. Forecast rainfall totals range from about a half-inch at least, to several inches of rain if rain is heavy enough and/or if training occurs. (That's where thunderstorms form and re-form over the same area repeatedly.)
A marginal risk of severe weather (wind and hail) has been posted for Tuesday as well. Rain should exit the area completely late Tuesday night.
And then, behind the front, we'll see a sharp drop in humidity by early Wednesday morning. We're looking ahead to some ridiculously dry air for midsummer — that means it's going to be refreshing and comfortable! Combined with a return to sunshine and pleasantly warm temperatures (lower to mid 80s), the weather looks spectacular for Wednesday and
Friday looks good too, although a slight increase in cloud cover and a breeze off the ocean complicate the forecast. The weekend forecast is a bit complicated at this point too, with a return to unsettled weather possible on Sunday. As always, I firmly believe we only have good resolution on one storm system at a time. Wait until Wednesday, and then we'll start to have a better view of the weekend.