Sunny, Dry, Mild Tuesday for NJ, Spotty Rain Returns Wednesday
Brrrr! As promised, we've got some chilly temperatures to start this Tuesday. The interior of the state — away from urban corridors and the coast — are seeing widespread 40s. The lowest temps are in NW NJ and the middle of the Pine Barrens, as cool as 42 degrees. As of this writing, we're a single digit above the daily record low at Trenton (currently 50 degrees, record 49 degrees dating back to 1979).
High pressure and dry air will have a firm grip on our atmosphere Tuesday. Once the sun rises, we're going to warm up very quickly. High temperatures are forecast to reach the mid 70s for most of the state Tuesday afternoon — that's about 5 degrees below normal for mid-June. Coastal communities will end up a bit cooler thanks to the sea breeze. Given ocean water temperatures in the mid 60s, Jersey Shore air temperatures will probably end up in the upper 60s.
Starting Tuesday evening, clouds will start to fill back into the sky as high pressure shifts off-shore and our next storm system approaches. The onset of any shower activity will hold off until well after Midnight. Overnight low temperatures are expected to fall into the lower 60s.
Wednesday will bring a return to unsettled weather, with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible at any point during the day. It's not going to rain all day, but you'll probably get wet at a couple points during the day. There's a chance for some stronger storms Wednesday afternoon, especially in the northern and western reaches of the Garden State.
When it's not raining, Wednesday will be mostly cloudy, breezy, and very humid. I think it will stay warm, with high temperatures in the lower 80s away from the oceanfront.
By early Thursday morning, a cold front will put an end to rain chances and drive in much drier air. Humidity will drop dramatically Thursday, making conditions more more comfortable and tolerable. Furthermore, a quick return to sunshine will accompany sustained warmth in the lower to mid 80s. It should be a nice, summery day.
Friday looks good too, with lots of sunshine. Temperatures take a step backwards, with forecast highs on either side of 80 degrees.
The weekend forecast is still holding together nicely, although guidance is pushing in some heat. I'm seeing mid 80s for Saturday, upper 80s to around 90 for Sunday, and perhaps widespread 90s by Monday. All along the way, the sea breeze machine should keep the Jersey Shore significantly cooler — I suspect the beaches will be very popular this weekend, as long as this forecast holds.
Our next next chance for substantial rain is currently modeled to arrive late Monday-Tuesday next week.