This Would be ‘Standard’ Mid-winter Cold, But it’s Only November
On November 13th, warm air was asked to remove himself from New Jersey. That request came from Mother Nature. Deep down, warmth knew she was right, but he also knew that some day he would return...
To all the New Jerseyans clamoring "Hey, it's not that cold!" — you're absolutely right! If it were mid-January, the dead of winter, this would be a totally typical day and night for the Garden State. But it's mid-November. We've already broken records, with temperatures holding about 20 to 25 degrees below seasonal normals.
Let's do some weather math. We're waking up to temperatures in the upper teens and 20s across the state Wednesday morning. The breeze is definitely noticeable, sustained at 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts to 20+ mph. That leads to a wind chill ("feels like" or "apparent" temperature) in the single digits and lower teens. As I've said before, it's not quite "dangerous" cold, but it's definitely unseasonable and uncomfortable.
Thermometers will only top out in the lower to mid 30s Wednesday afternoon. If you experience above-freezing temperatures, it will only be for a few hours at the most. At least it will be sunny and dry, and the breeze will die down through the afternoon.
The unseasonable cold continues into Wednesday night, with lows dipping into the upper teens to lower 20s. Winds will be calm, and clouds will be on the increase.
Thursday will be slightly warmer, with temps rising into the mid 40s. Definitely still jacket weather. Skies will turn mostly cloudy, but it should be another dry day.
Models are showing a trio of storm systems will slide along the East Coast in the medium-range forecast. At the moment, the impacts of all three look to be minimal — some clouds, some showers, and northerly winds keeping cool air on top of New Jersey.
Timing for #2 and #3 is a challenge at this point. GFS says the three systems will pass by the Jersey Shore on Friday, Sunday, and Tuesday. Euro shows Friday, Monday, and Wednesday. Obviously, which solution plays out directly impacts what our weather forecast looks like. Luckily, we still have some time for guidance to come into better agreement.
So showers will flirt with southern and coastal New Jersey on Friday. Meanwhile, to the north and west, we should see some pops of sunshine (especially late-day). With high temperatures near 50 degrees, we're only talking about raindrops, not snowflakes.
As winds become northeasterly Saturday morning, we face another cooldown. High temperatures this weekend will only reach about 40 degrees.
If you don't mind the chill, Saturday won't be too bad overall. We'll see a slow transition from sun to clouds, and our weather should stay dry.
On Sunday, coastal showers will be possible once again. (Again, see my note about coastal storm timing difficulties above.)
This is the time of year when we're always scanning the horizon for our next weathermaker. There are no substantial snow storms in the long-range forecast. But I don't see any warmth on the way either — temperatures may be stuck below-normal through most of November.