Tuesday NJ weather: Hit-or-miss rain chances return

The Bottom Line

Yes, Tuesday will mark the return of cloudy skies and ramped-up rain chances. A storm system swinging by New Jersey will present unsettled weather conditions over the next 48 hours or so.

There are two notable changes to our weather forecast as of Tuesday morning:

1.) Forecast models backed off the steady, heavy rain potential for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Precipitation spread now looks much more spotty and broken apart. Rainfall totals will probably end up around a half-inch to an inch across most of the state, rather than 1 to 2+ inches as previously advertised.

2.) The next storm system in line, set to arrive this weekend, has shifted later. It now looks like more of a Sunday soaker than Saturday.

I am sorry to say forecast uncertainty is rather high, especially surrounding the exact timing of potential raindrops. But I do not think these are "cancel your plans" days — more of a "wait and see" situation.

Tuesday

The day is starting off great, with peeks of sun and a comfortable chill in the air. Morning temperatures are rising into the 50s. And Tuesday will be a fairly warm day, with highs expected to reach the mid 70s.

However, ahead of our next storm system, thicker clouds are already arriving from the southwest. And by Tuesday afternoon, things will probably turn pretty gray and dreary.

In addition, isolated to spotty rain showers will be possible after about 10 a.m., through the afternoon. The general rule of thumb here is that rain chances will only go up as the hours tick by Tuesday. And they will be very much hit-or-miss — so you may or may not need the umbrella at times.

Let's run through the usual storm system checklist. Heavy rain? Maybe. Rumbles of thunder? Possibly. Severe weather? Unlikely. Coastal flooding? Not this time.

The forecast holds steady into Tuesday night, with a few showers possible. Low temperatures will dip into the upper 50s by Wednesday morning.

Wednesday

Likely the wettest day of the workweek. But there are still several scenarios on the table for Wednesday, ranging from "a few showers" to "heavy rain".

If this storm system produces a period of steady rain, it would be during the daytime hours on Wednesday. That could dump a quick inch of rainfall, especially over South Jersey. But I think those heavy totals will be the exception not the rule.

Regardless of what does or does not fall from the sky Wednesday, it will not be a very nice day. Expect overcast skies and cooler temperatures. But we're talking about highs in the 60s — not those miserably cool 50s like we have seen several times in recent weeks.

Thursday

As the storm system departs out to sea, cloud cover and cool temperatures in the 60s will hold on to New Jersey for another day. Lingering showers are possible too, especially along the eastern edge of the state.

Friday

Friday is the one day in the forecast that looks completely dry. We should see a pleasant mix of clouds and sun, with seasonable high temperatures right around 70 degrees.

The Weekend & Beyond

The weekend forecast gets tricky again, as another potential storm system comes into view. Previous, it looks like a Friday night to Saturday soaker. But model guidance has taken a strong shift later, putting the best chance for inch-plus rainfall on Sunday.

That is not to say things will not shift again — this thing is still five to six days away. Obviously, the presence of thick clouds and rain would have an effect on temperatures. And your outdoor plans are highly dependent on how this plays out. (Can you believe this will be the last weekend before Memorial Day Weekend?)