Tuesday Will Be Another Bright, Sunny, Dry, Chilly Day for NJ
Happy Tuesday, New Jersey! This week's weather forecast is about to progress from "dry and chilly" to "potentially slippery" to "warm" to "wet".
We're waking up on this Tuesday morning to some pretty frigid temperatures. Thanks to crystal-clear skies and bone-dry air, thermometers really tanked overnight, with widespread teens and 20s across the state. At least there's no wind.
Tuesday will be another bright and sunny, dry and chilly December day. High temperatures are expected to climb into the lower 40s — similar to Monday, if not a degree or two warmer as winds briefly become southwesterly. (By the way, we had a temperature triple on Monday afternoon — the daily high was 41 degrees at EWR, TTN, and ACY!)
As a weak front pushes into New Jersey Tuesday night, you might encounter a few flurries flying around (but nothing more than that). Skies will be partly cloudy overnight, with low temps in the mid to upper 20s. (We should avoid widespread teens.)
New Jersey's sky will flip back to sunshine to start Wednesday, although I do expect increasing clouds later on. No surprise in terms of temperature, as we once again end up in the lower 40s.
The most significant update to this forecast will come on Thursday, as a weak storm system arrives in the Garden State. In previous forecasts, I had written it off as insignificant. But now I'm thinking there could be slippery spots.
So we'll see a chance for light snow and rain showers from Thursday morning through Thursday evening. Again, key word here is light. Sure, there could be a coating of snow on the ground at some point. (The NAM model has even gone as high as 1" of snow accumulation.) But it would be difficult for snow to stick to road surfaces, especially if they're pretreated. I'm actually more concerned about an ever-so-brief period of freezing rain or drizzle, leading to a light glaze of ice. Again, this system is fairly weak, but worth watching.
Warmer air arrives on Friday, with high temperatures bouncing into the 50s for almost the entire state. While skies will be cloudy, the taste of milder air will be welcome. And we should stay dry through the Friday daytime hours.
We're still watching a storm system arriving in the Friday night time frame, with a very complicated evolution and a mixed bag of potential impacts. Of particular note though, with temperatures hovering in the 40s and 50s through the duration, we're still looking at just rain.
That rain could be heavy at times on Saturday, totaling an inch or two by the end of the day. We'll have to be vigilant for potentially flash and river flooding issues. The wind forecast has come down a bit, but you'll still feel a stiff breeze from the east. An easterly wind is an on-shore flow, and that presents a risk for rough surf and coastal flooding too. (It's a day or two too early to gauge those coastal impacts with any certainty.)
So Saturday is a potential washout. The latest GFS model forecast shows that storm system lingering with additional rain on Sunday too. Monday will be cooldown day — if that storm system is still in the neighborhood, there could be some snow at the very tail end. Even though the ground will be soaked, light accumulations can't be ruled out.