A drizzly, damp Tuesday for NJ – minor coastal flooding possible
October has been a very wet month. Month-to-date rainfall totals have ranged from 6.36" at Newark, to 4.34" at Trenton, and 5.15" at Atlantic City — all substantially above long-term averages. Those numbers especially amazing when you consider just how dry September was.
And it looks like October will end on an unsettled note, with cruddy drizzle Tuesday, isolated showers Wednesday, and scattered rain Thursday. Yes, Halloween will be a wet weather day. But I'm still optimistic that we'll find some breaks in the afternoon and evening hours. More on that in a moment.
On this Tuesday morning, we're already seeing waves of patchy drizzle coming ashore. Roads are wet, and it feels quite damp. I suspect that's going to be the case throughout the day — occasional drizzle, with lots of cloud cover. High temperatures will only reach about the 60 degree mark Tuesday afternoon, give or take.
The on-shore breeze will also push a foot or two of extra ocean water toward the Jersey Shore, presenting a risk for minor to localized moderate coastal flooding during high tide Tuesday. Next high tide cycle is at 9 a.m. along the oceanfront, and up to several hours later for back bays and tributaries.
We'll dry out a little bit Tuesday night, but there will still be some sprinkles around. Low temperatures only fall a few degrees into the mid 50s.
Wednesday will be somewhat drier, but models still hint at a few isolated showers and mostly cloudy skies. Thermometers will warm into the upper 60s.
Thursday is Halloween. Steady rain in the early morning hours will (hopefully) transition to scattered rain through the morning, afternoon, and early evening hours. Almost all forecast models show some breaks in the rain during prime trick-or-treating time. So for your own Halloween outdoor activities, it's a matter of timing and really whether you just get lucky.
It's also going to be warm and breezy on Thursday, with high temperatures close to 70 degrees.
The threat for heavier rain and gusty winds is still forecast to hold off until late Thursday night, after about 10 p.m. It's really going to pour through early Friday morning, with potential wind gusts as high as 45 mph.
As rain ends Friday, skies will quickly clear to sunshine. The temperature drop in the early morning hours will be quite dramatic, as we go from mild 70s to blustery 50s in a matter of hours. It will stay windy all day too, although gusts calm somewhat during the daytime hours.
That big transition sets us up for a cool, but calm first weekend of November. I'm showing high temperatures in the lower to mid 50s for Saturday and Sunday. That is 5 to 10 degrees below normal for early November. Firmly in jacket weather territory. But with lighter winds, dry weather, dry air, and sunshine, it should be otherwise pleasant.