Comfortable and Dry Wednesday, Humid and Soaking Wet Thursday
Sniff... You smell that? Taste that? Oh, how I love dry air! Low humidity will the key to a pleasant weather day Wednesday. But it's not going to last long.
We're waking up on this Wednesday morning to temperatures mostly in the 50s — thermometers have crashed into the 40s in the coolest spots. It's going to be a comfortable, dry weather day. However, clouds have already started to increase. And temperatures will end up a bit cooler than Tuesday and a bit below-normal for mid-June, with highs limited to the lower to mid 70s Wednesday afternoon.
Our stormy, soggy setup kicks in Wednesday evening as showers bubble up into South Jersey. I believe by daybreak early Thursday morning, we'll start to see some steady, heavy rain impacting New Jersey.
As we've been discussing all week, this batch of wet weather actually comes from a pair of storm systems. The primary system is a coastal storm, the center of which should pass just east of New Jersey. (I'm calling that one primary as it will arrive first, will carry a ton of moisture with it, and will have more noticeable wet weather impacts for New Jersey.) The secondary system will travel across the Midwest and Great Lakes later on, keeping clouds and raindrops over New Jersey through much of calendar day Thursday.
Here's a rundown of how the rain will likely play out:
—First raindrops: Around 10 p.m. Wednesday evening, in South Jersey.
—Wednesday late evening: Showers bubble up from the south.
—Early Thursday morning: Steadier rain spreads throughout the state.
—Thursday morning: Periods of heavy rain.
—Thursday afternoon and evening: Rainfall becomes more scattered (on-and-off).
—Final raindrops: Around Midnight Thursday evening, along the coast.
Rainfall totals will probably reach the 1 to 2 inch range for most of New Jersey. The high end of that estimate could be enough to cause some flooding and ponding issues during periods of heavy rain. Of course, this is entirely predicated on getting the storm tracks just right. (It is admittedly a very tricky setup.) The bottom line remains the same — Thursday is going to be a wet day.
Temperatures are even more troublesome. My latest forecast puts high temps ranging from the upper 50s (North Jersey) to mid 70s (South Jersey). I suspect the majority of New Jersey will get stuck in the 60s, thanks to the clouds and the rain.
By the time you wake up Friday morning, you should be able to see some blue sky and sunshine again. We'll enjoy dry air and dry weather on Friday, with high temperatures in the mid 70s. Skies will range from mostly to partly sunny, with a brisk westerly wind at 15 to 25 mph. Another pleasant, fall-like day.
The forecast for the start of the Father's Day Weekend looks great! Saturday should be partly sunny. A stiff land breeze will push high temperatures into the lower to mid 80s. Sunday gets even warmer — 90 degrees will be a possibility somewhere in NJ. However, to that summerlike forecast, we'll also have to add a few showers and thunderstorms starting Sunday afternoon.
And that's going to be a familiar story for the first half of next week, at least for Monday and Tuesday. Sun and clouds. Hot and humid. A few showers and thunderstorms. Summerlike.