Dry, mild Monday – Halloween forecast more ‘trick’ than ‘treat’
For the second Sunday in a row, heavy rain drenched the Garden State. 19 of 21 counties (all but Cape May and Monmouth) saw rainfall totals over an inch. The top rainfall total I could find was 2.64 inches at Lodi, Bergen County. There were some flooding and ponding issues due to the deluges, but nothing too dramatic.
And then, as the rain wrapped up Sunday afternoon... The sun came out! And it was delightfully warm, with temps in the lower 70s!
I have more beautiful (albeit slightly cooler) weather to talk about for Monday, before things turn unsettled and damp again. As I mention in the headline of this post, the Halloween forecast isn't exactly pretty — but it's not a washout either.
Dry & Mild
Monday is going to be the nicest weather day of the week. Ehhh, strike that. Monday is going to be the only pleasant day of the week. So enjoy it while it lasts!
Skies will be mostly sunny, although models suggest some extra clouds build during the afternoon hours. It will be dry and mild all day. We're starting off in the 50s Monday morning, with mid to upper 60s expected for Monday afternoon. That is above-normal for late October. (Normal high temperatures are in the lower 60s.)
Fog is possible Monday night, with increasing clouds. Lows again only dip into the lower 50s — cool, but not too cold. (Normal low temperatures are about 10 degrees colder, in the lower 40s.)
Showery and Drizzly
An on-shore flow will make for an increase in humidity and a return to grey, damp conditions. Hit-or-miss showers and drizzle are expected throughout the day (and night) Tuesday, especially along the Jersey Shore. Nothing heavy, but it will be enough to make things yucky at times. At the very least, we'll see lots of cloud cover on Tuesday. High temperatures will be limited to the lower 60s.
Wednesday looks similar, although somewhat drier. Mostly cloudy with a few isolated showers, and warmer high temps in the upper 60s.
Halloween: More 'Trick' than 'Treat'
It's one of the most important forecasts of the year, as trick-or-treaters prepare to take to the streets to earn their sugary delights. Just to give you some climatological context, New Jersey has seen measurable rain on 5 of the last 20 October 31s. Our heaviest Halloween rainfall in recent history occurred in 2009, when almost a quarter-inch of rainfall moistened South Jersey.
Thanks to an approaching cold front complex, this year's Halloween forecast will be the latest addition to that list. The forecast is not perfect. But have hope, ghouls and ghosts — it's not a total washout either. It's all about timing.
Both the GFS and Euro long-range models put rain over part of New Jersey early on Thursday. For the most part, it does not look like a steady soaker — rainfall intensity will generally remain light, and there should be breaks in the rainfall action Thursday morning and afternoon.
There is pretty solid consensus to suggest the heaviest rain of the day arrives just before the cold front late Thursday night. According to the GFS, that would be after about 10 p.m. The latest Euro solution runs later, with solid rain mainly Friday morning. In either case, any downpours would hold off until after prime trick-or-treating time.
Keep in mind, that timeline is subject to wiggle as the week presses on, and even a difference of a few hours or a few miles may impact your Halloween night plans. I'll offer my usual play-by-by online and on-the-air as this very important forecast continues to evolve
November: Turning Much Colder
The rain will be swept out to sea by a strong cold front. As a much drier and cooler air mass arrives on Friday, a big cooldown kicks in. Winds will be gusty, as high as 40 mph. And temperatures will tumble from near 70 in the morning to the 50s by the afternoon.
The first weekend of November will be calmer, drier, sunnier, and cooler. High temps will only reach the lower to mid 50s (at best) for Saturday and Sunday, below seasonal normals. With very low dew points, we'll enjoy dry weather and abundant sunshine throughout the weekend.