The Bottom Line

If Six Flags Great Adventure built a roller coaster called Autumn, it would be wildest and the most appropriate ride ever designed. This season is all about ups and downs. And we've got a big drop coming over the weekend, as a strong cold front aims for the Garden State.

Friday

Another morning in the fog. According to visibility sensors, the thickest thickets of fog are located along the coast. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for central and southern New Jersey until 9 a.m.

Just like Thursday and Wednesday, the fog should largely mix out by the 9 and 10 o'clock hours. However, for the rest of the day, we'll find ourselves under the influence of a light on-shore (east-southeast) breeze. So the clouds will hold on, especially in NJ's coastal counties. We could even see some drizzly sprinkles around through the first half of the day. Farther inland, you should see at least some filtered sunshine later on.

Because of the early fog, the sprinkles, and the clouds, temperatures will end up a bit cooler than the past few days. (Yesterday, we had a bunch of 80+ degree temperatures in SW NJ.) Look for highs in the upper 60s (east) to lower 70s (west).

We face one more somewhat sticky, foggy night Friday night. Skies will be partly cloudy, with lows around 60. That is still about 15 degrees above normal for late October — not crisp at all.

Saturday

I'll say it straight away — Saturday will be a decent day, even though it's also a cold front day.

Early morning fog will give way to late morning breaks of sun. Then clouds really thicken up. I'll add a slight chance of a shower to the forecast for Saturday afternoon — models are showing a very moisture-starved front here. (Don't be surprised if you stay completely dry.) Top northerly wind gusts are expected to top 25 mph — that's really not that ferocious. High temperatures will be in the upper 60s to around 70 — still above seasonal normals.

Sunday

The cooldown is going to be noticeable, to say the least.

By Sunday morning, temperatures will bottom out in the lower to mid 40s across most of the state. NW NJ (Sussex, Warren, Morris, Passaic) could fall into the 30s, with patchy frost possible.

And Sunday afternoon, we'll only top out in the mid 50s. A shocking swing from above-normal to below-normal.

Skies will stay mostly cloudy. And we'll probably see some showers around, especially late-day Sunday.

Monday

High temps will recover to the seasonable lower 60s. Lingering showers in the morning, then probably dry. Mostly to partly cloudy in the afternoon.

Tuesday & Beyond

Two more disturbances are forecast in the medium-range forecast. The first will bring a batch of scattered showers on Tuesday, especially for the northern half of the state. Wednesday looks quiet. Then our next big cold front is set to arrive next Thursday. Models suggest that one will carry a period of steady to heavy rain — we'll be on "washout alert" late next week.

One thing is pretty clear. Behind that final front, we'll encounter a deep pocket of colder air. In other words, our days of 70s are over for the season. I suspect by Halloween (next Saturday), we could be talking about almost-daily frosts and freezes for non-coastal, non-urban New Jersey. Oh boy!

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