The Bottom Line

As expected, Sunday night got dramatic in a hurry, as a squall line of strong thunderstorms drove violent winds through New Jersey.

The Storm Prediction Center received 48 reports of severe wind gusts and damage in NJ Sunday night. That's a lot of blue dots. (NOAA / SPC)

Winds have calmed significantly overnight. And we're now becoming fully entrenched in our new cool, very dry air mass. Cool — even downright cold — temperatures will be the big weather story of the week. By midweek, we face widespread morning freezes amid the coldest air of the season so far.


A stiff westerly breeze will carry through at least the Monday morning hours, occasionally gusting between 20 and 30 mph. Skies will be bright and sunny. (With the exception of a few clouds, from fizzling convection over Central PA.)

We probably already hit our daily "high temperature" for the day just after Midnight. We'll see thermometers climb from the 40s Monday morning, into the lower 50s Monday afternoon. Definitely qualifies as "jacket weather".

The NAM model forecast for the continental U.S. shows a widespread intrusion of cold air from the north. (Tropical Tidbits)

Monday night, a light breeze will keep the air just stirred up enough to stave off crashing temperatures. Still, with low temperatures dipping into the mid to upper 30s across most of the state, frost is a good bet away from warmer coastal areas. And the coldest spots in the state could feel a light freeze overnight. (I believe the growing season has officially ended everywhere, so it's not an urgent concern for farmers and gardeners.)


A weak disturbance will pass north of New Jersey, enhanced by Great Lakes moisture. Latest model guidance doesn't show much in the way of precipitation over New Jersey — not a surprise, given how dry our atmosphere will be. However, I think it's prudent to include a shower chance at some point Tuesday. Best chance would be northern New Jersey around midday. And depending on the exact timing, geography, and temperatures, those showers could be either snow or rain (or perhaps a little bit of both). In any case, don't expect much to fall from the sky, and travel issues are unlikely.

Otherwise, Tuesday will be partly sunny with highs in the upper 40s. That is 5 to 10 degrees below normal for mid-November.


The bottom of the barrel! The coldest day of the week! And probably NJ's coldest day since late March!

Morning lows in the 20s (away from the coast). Afternoon highs only around 40 degrees, give or take. With bright sunshine, dry air, and dry weather, it will look and feel like a pleasant mid-winter day. Of course, here in mid-November, it is about 15 degrees below mid-November norms.


As winds turn to blow out of the southwest, temperatures will turn around. With sun and clouds and highs near 50, it will be a decent (although cool) day.

Friday & Beyond

On Friday, temps should surge past seasonable levels to nearly 60 degrees. Partly sunny and dry, making for a pleasant end to the workweek.

And it looks like we'll keep the warmup and superb weather going into the weekend, with widespread 60s across the state.

Our next storm system is not expected for about a week, next Monday.

I've gotten a ton of questions about the forecast for Thanksgiving, which is now 10 days away. Still too far in the distance to offer specifics. But long-range models are favoring more mild temperatures (compared to this week's wintry chill).

As for whether rain, snow, or wind will affect your holiday or travel plans? A lot can change in a week and a half. For now, we'll just have to wait and see.

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NJ safe family fun for late 2020