Heat wave ends with a bang: Steamy then stormy for NJ Wednesday

The Bottom Line

We're almost there, New Jersey! After almost two weeks of heat and humidity, ranging from uncomfortable to extreme, we have big changes on the way within the next 24 hours.

Wednesday will be a little better than Tuesday, since we're not expecting widespread triple-digit temperatures this time around. But we are still in the heat "danger zone," with an Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory continuing for most of the state. But only for one more day.

As a cold front approaches from the west late Wednesday, a round of strong thunderstorms is expected. Then our weather improves dramatically on Thursday — more specifically, humidity levels are set to drop dramatically.

That will set us up for a stretch of mainly dry, warm, more comfortable weather. Mark your calendars: The forecast for Thursday through about Tuesday looks great!

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Wednesday

From steamy to stormy. Two reasons for the "yellow alert" icon on the 5 Day Forecast once again.

Our latest round of violent thunderstorms exited the Garden State early Wednesday morning. And we're left with dry weather, residual clouds, and temperatures in the steamy 70s to start the day.

High temperatures Wednesday afternoon will reach about 90 to 95 degrees. Factor in the high humidity, and the heat index (the "feels like" or "apparent" temperature) will shoot to about 100 to 104 degrees. I think you know the routine by now: Dress for the heat, stay extra hydrated, and take frequent breaks.

The Jersey Shore will be the cool spot again. (Long Beach Island has been in the 70s pretty much all week long!)

Most of the day will feature periods of sun and clouds. From late afternoon through Wednesday evening, we will have to watch the western sky for widespread thunderstorms to arrive.

Given our fully-charged atmosphere with bountiful humidity to fuel these storms, heavy rain is a big concern. I would not be surprised at all to see a few spots (not everyone) get over an inch dumped on them. Gusty winds and lots of lightning are also possible, raising power outage concerns. The risk for hail or a tornado is relatively low this time around.

Prime time for thunderstorms is 4 p.m. to Midnight Wednesday, generally sweeping from northwest to southeast across the state. While not everyone will necessarily see a storm, most of NJ will get wet at some point.

After Midnight, storms will taper to scattered showers. Fog is possible overnight too, especially where it poured. Low temperatures will dip to around 70 degrees.

Thursday

The transition to our new air mass will be slow, but very noticeable.

Some showers may linger through 9 or 10 a.m. Thursday (at the latest). But then skies will slowly clear through the afternoon alongside a light northwesterly breeze.

More importantly, humidity levels will slide backward throughout the day. Dew points will go from 70 early on to the 50s by Thursday night. A huge difference in the thickness/steaminess in the air.

It will still be warm and summery Thursday, with highs reaching the mid 80s. But that is right on the long-term average for mid-July, right around 86 degrees. (Statistically, July 18th is New Jersey's average hottest day of the year.)

As dry air really entrenches itself in New Jersey's atmosphere Thursday night, it's going to feel great. Lows by Friday morning will be deep in the 60s. Maybe even some 50s. We haven't seen that since July 3rd.

Friday

All week long, I have been calling Friday the nicest of the week. And I maintain that stance here and now : Friday will be an absolutely gorgeous summer day.

Mostly sunny skies. No rain, no big wind, and continuing low humidity. High temperatures will be seasonable, typical for this time of year, in the mid 80s.

Saturday & Sunday

We will keep the good weather vibes going through the upcoming weekend too.

Just a few minor issues to mention. First, humidity levels will tick up just a hair, with dew points rising to the 60s. It will feel sticky, but nowhere near as steamy and tropical as our recent stretch of weather.

Second, we might see more clouds than sun at times. Not a tremendous problem, unless you're trying to work on your tan.

Third, I can not completely rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm. Right now, model guidance likes an isolated popup Saturday afternoon. I do believe the vast majority of New Jersey will stay completely dry for the duration.

High temperatures for both Saturday and Sunday will reach the mid to upper 80s. A little warmer than Friday. A couple of 90s may pop up on the temperature map too.

The Extended Forecast

The forecast gets fuzzier beyond the weekend, but I think we still have more nice weather in store for each next week.

Monday will bring more warmth and more clouds. And possibly some rain, especially late day.

Tuesday looks quite cloudy, keeping temperatures a few degrees cooler.

And then we will enter a stretch of unsettled weather, with daily rain and thunderstorm chances from Wednesday through the weekend. Can't complain too much about wet weather — we still really need the rain. Hopefully it is not too persistent to wash out any summer days. And hopefully the raindrops don't come along with another big push of humidity too.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.