NJ weather: Humidity creeps up, eyeing rain chances this weekend

The Bottom Line

New Jersey will squeeze out two more warm, pleasant, mainly dry days. And then we face three days of unsettled weather, with on-and-off rain carrying through the upcoming weekend.

It is starting to feel a little stickier — humidity and temperatures have been creeping up this week. But not overly so — it just feels more like summer than early fall.

We are starting to get a clearer picture of this weekend's wet weather. And I am confident there will be more dry hours than wet ones across the Garden State. The best chances for rain will be Saturday night and then Sunday afternoon/evening.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Ernesto will stay far east of New Jersey. But it will churn up the Atlantic Ocean quite a bit, leading to increased swell and an elevated risk of rip currents.

Thursday

We're doing just fine yet again Thursday.

Morning temperatures are starting in the 60s. And we will top out around the mid to upper 80s Thursday afternoon. (90 degrees is possible somewhere in the state, for the first time in nine days.) Definitely warm, and close to normal for mid-August.

It should be a very nice beach day, with both ocean and air temperatures in the 70s. A low risk of rip currents is posted for now, although the surf will get considerably rougher this weekend as Hurricane Ernesto passes several hundred miles off-shore.

Thursday will feature plenty of sunshine and blue skies. You may see some extra cloud cover build in the afternoon.

Also around the late afternoon hours, an isolated shower could pop up. Best chance for that would be in northern New Jersey or along the sea breeze front near the Jersey Shore.

Thursday night stay pleasant, with a few lingering clouds. Low temperatures will dip into the fairly comfortable mid 60s.

Friday

I have removed the rain chance from Friday's forecast. Any showers should hold off until well after Midnight. Meaning we will manage one more dry day for the week.

Clouds will increase throughout the day, but it should be a bright sky overall. Temperatures will be on the warm side again — probably the warmest of the week — peaking around 85 to 90 degrees.

Dew points will be in the lower 60s. So I can not call it "low" humidity anymore. But "moderate" humidity is a good place to be here in the dog days of August.

Saturday

This weekend turns mostly cloudy and unsettled. But again, neither day will be a washout.

A hit or miss shower will be possible at any time from Saturday morning through the afternoon. It will be breezy and more humid. And temperatures will come down slightly, with highs in the lower 80s.

The best chance for a batch of heavier rain will come into play Saturday night. (For now, the timing looks to be from about sunset on.) While severe wind seems unlikely, there could be some localized downpours and/or rumbles of thunder around.

Sunday

Probably the worse of the two weekend days. But not necessarily a total loss.

We should catch a lull in rain from morning through early afternoon. It will be cloudy, breezy, and humid (dew point back to 70). High temperatures will only reach about 80 degrees.

Then showers and thunderstorm chances will start to ramp up again from mid-afternoon through the evening hours. Once again, there could be some stronger storm cells with pockets of soaking rain — but for the most part, it will just be some wet weather to end the weekend.

Monday & Beyond

One more piece of energy, associated with a cold front, could produce one more batch of scattered showers and thunderstorms around midday on Monday.

And then we should enter another extended period of dry weather.

By the time the unsettled weather ends, parts of New Jersey will see a fresh inch of rain in the gauge. Healthy rainfall, helping to further erase any drought concerns through the rest of summer.

Next week could once again take on a "fall feel" with high temperatures potentially stuck in the 70s. As long as Monday's storm system fully exits on schedule, we should enjoy bright sunshine and lower humidity too.