NJ weather: Rain this weekend, but only for a few hours

The Bottom Line

Let me explain that headline. I have seen some downright bad forecasts out there for Saturday. Yes, it is our next chance of rain. Yes, it is going to be inclement for part of the day. Yes, there is a chance of lightning and thunder, which raises some red flags for outdoor events.

But the threat for flooding downpours and all-day rain has gone away. We're talking about a few hours of wet weather, amounting to about a quarter-inch of total rainfall. And that is it. This is one of those situations where hyping it up as a "major storm" is really inappropriate. It is just unfortunate that our one and only rain chance falls on a weekend.

Other than Saturday, the forecast is fantastic. We have to talk about an upward tick in humidity and increasing clouds this week. And then another burst of cooler, drier air arriving behind the rain and cold front on Sunday.

Thursday

Practically same story, different day.

Thursday morning is cool, crisp, and clear — just like every other morning so far this week. Temperatures range from the 40s in NW NJ and the Pine Barrens, to the 50s for most of the state, to the 60s along the Jersey Shore.

We will enjoy lots of sunshine, with a few passing clouds throughout Thursday. It will be completely dry. High temperatures will reach for the mid 70s or so — very similar to Wednesday.

While the weather will be pleasant and comfortable once again, there is one snag that is very important to note. There is a coastal storm system spinning a few hundred miles east of New Jersey, over the ocean. Significant weather impacts are not expected — but it will introduce an on-shore breeze and churn up the surf.

A high risk of dangerous rip currents is posted for NJ's coastline on Thursday. That is an especially dangerous situation with lifeguards off-duty in the off-season. Please stay out of the ocean.

With a thin blanket of clouds overhead and a slight increase in humidity levels, Thursday night will end up about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than the last few nights. Look for lows around 60 degrees — still comfortable.

Friday

There will be some weather changes for Friday. But on balance, we should squeeze out one more pleasant day.

The air will feel stickier and more humid. And away from the coast, thermometers will rise into the upper 70s or so. Shore towns will be a little cooler, thanks to a continuing on-shore breeze.

We will see a mix of sun and clouds throughout Friday, probably leaning more toward cloud cover toward the end of the day.

In addition, there is a chance of a sprinkle at some point. Mainly along the coast in the morning. Barely a trace of rainfall, isolated and brief.

Saturday

On Saturday, the combination of an approaching cold front and a passing coastal storm system will present New Jersey with its one and only chance of widespread rain for the week. Note: The front is the more important piece of this forecast puzzle, by far — the coastal storm will just be "there".

It is reasonable to expect everyone in New Jersey will get wet at some point Saturday. But as I mentioned, it will not be an all-day affair.

Early Saturday morning should be dry. I could see a shower coming into view as early as the late morning hours.

The best chance of rain will kick in Saturday afternoon, as a cold front approaches. A line of rain will push from west to east. .There could be some embedded thunderstorms out there.

Rain may linger into Saturday early evening too. (Forecast models are still showing some timing differences.) By late evening, we should start to dry out and clear out.

Otherwise, Saturday will be mostly cloudy, breezy, and fairly humid. High temperatures should once again reach the 70s.

Sunday

On Sunday, cooler, drier air will return to New Jersey. And skies will turn mostly sunny again too.

While Sunday will be quite pleasant, it is going to be on the cool side. Especially with a stiff westerly breeze up to 20 mph. High temperatures will only reach about 70 degrees — similar to a typical early October day.

Monday & Beyond

We fall right back into a sunny, dry weather pattern for next week. Although it looks like we will tap into some warmer air.

Monday will top out in the 70s. Then 80s return for Tuesday and Wednesday. More 80s are expected through the second half of the week. I would not be surprised to see a few 90s around. Don't winterize those air conditioners just yet — it is still technically summer, after all.

Barring any tropical developments, New Jersey does not face any additional significant storm systems or widespread rain chances through next weekend.