The Bottom Line

Well, Sunday looked nice. We finally squeaked out a dry weekend day, although it was pretty windy and cold. The wind continues to howl overnight, putting New Jersey firmly in a cool, dry air mass to start the final full week of October.

The breeze will die down Monday. But that will allow the cold air to really settle, upping the possibility of patchy frost by Tuesday morning. Pretty chilly. Definitely feeling like fall.

But the fall season is all about big transitions and wild temperature swings. And we've got one ahead — a welcome warmup that will set up a pretty good looking forecast for the rest of the week. Ready for a return of 60s? 70s? How about 80s?


The new week begins with cool temperatures, in the 40s across almost the entire state. And with occasional wind gusts over 20 mph, we even have to talk about the wind chill dipping into the 30s in spots. It's not a bitterly, brutally frigid morning. But definitely chilly enough to warrant a jacket or sweater.

The wind will not whip as hard as it did on Sunday, but we will stay in the "breezy" category through Monday morning. Winds will calm through the afternoon.

With mostly sunny skies, dry air, and dry weather, Monday's high temperature will max out around 60 degrees in the afternoon. Not bad. Similar to Sunday. And 5 degrees or less below normal for late October. As long as the wind dies down, it should turn into a nice day.

Monday night, however, looks cold. In fact, it will probably be New Jersey's coldest night of the season so far. I'm putting the statewide average low temperature around 40. But the interior of the state (away from cities and coast) will probably dip into the 30s, which may be cold enough for areas of frost to form.

According to the Glossary of Meteorology, frost is defined as "the fuzzy layer of ice crystals on a cold object... formed by direct deposition of water vapor to solid ice." The air temperature does not have to drop below 32 degrees for frost to form. Usually around 37 degrees is cold enough — on calm nights, the coldest air pools in the lowest inch of the atmosphere.

So that's the case tonight. It is not going to freeze. But we could see our first widespread frost of the season.


Despite the chilly, potentially frosty start, temperatures should warm quickly on Tuesday to a high in the lower to mid 60s. A sunny, seasonable day. Nothing to complain about there.


The warmup accelerates through midweek, climbing to around 70 degrees on Wednesday. Very nice!

There is one little snag on Wednesday, as a shortwave passes just north of New Jersey. Close enough to push in some cloud cover — let's call it partly sunny. And a shower or sprinkle is not impossible, but I am keeping a dry forecast for now.

Thursday & Friday

Thursday will be partly sunny, with highs in the mid 70s.

Friday will be flip back to mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 70s.

And that's about it. Quiet, warm, and dry.

The Extended Forecast

Will we make it eight weekends in a row with measurable rain in New Jersey? Probably not.

Saturday will be warm. Sunshine will give way to late-day clouds, with a noticeable westerly breeze. High temperatures will approach 80 degrees — about 15 above normal for this time of year, and close to record highs. Wow.

As clouds roll in, Sunday's temperatures will be a few degrees cooler. But still in the 70s.

A shower is not impossible at some point this weekend. But there is no significant forcing or rain chance to talk about at this time.

Our next significant storm system will likely come into play early next week, cooling us down and bringing some rain and wind. Sometime in the late Sunday-Monday time frame. This is important because next Tuesday is Halloween, which is always an important forecast. It's too early to talk details just yet — but fingers are crossed for dry weather for NJ's trick-or-treaters, at the very least.

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