NJ Weather: Warm Air Surges Again But it Won’t Last Long
The Bottom Line
Welcome back, wonderful warmth! As the headline promises, we're vaulting into another warm stretch, with two whole days of 70+ degree high temperatures. We are tracking a couple of cold fronts that will impact New Jersey. Temperatures will fall from the 70s to the 60s to the 50s by early next week. At least those frontal boundaries will be starved for moisture, keeping rain chances minimal.
To start, Wednesday morning is running about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than Tuesday morning, thanks to a hint of moisture and a few clouds overhead.
It's going to be a beautiful day. Period. Full stop.
Expect mostly sunny skies, dry air, dry weather, and warm temperatures. Highs will reach into the mid 70s Wednesday afternoon. That is again at least 10 degrees above seasonal norms. An occasional breeze will blow out of the west, up to about 15 mph.
Wednesday evening looks excellent too. Skies will remain mainly clear, as temperatures dip into the comfortably cool mid 50s.
Which day will be warmer, Wednesday or Thursday? Not sure. Wednesday will be sunnier, but Thursday will bring the potential for a "blast furnace" southwesterly wind.
The better question: Could thermometers flirt with 80 degrees somewhere in the state either day? Maybe. That would be very close to a record high.
Thursday will bring periods of sun and clouds, with highs again in the mid 70s (at least). The daytime hours look dry and pleasant.
A frontal boundary will sweep from northwest to southeast across New Jersey early Friday morning. It's not a particularly strong one. And it's going to be moisture-starved.
Forecast models have really backed off the idea of rain from this front. I think it's still prudent to suggest an isolated shower is possible somewhere in NJ early Friday morning. But most of us will stay completely dry.
Dew points will drop. And temperatures will too — a little bit. Highs Friday afternoon will "only" reach the upper 60s. I use the quotes because, even though it'll be cooler than Wednesday and Thursday, that's still above normal.
The weekend gets trickier, with another shot of cool air impacting your Saturday. The daytime hours on Saturday will be probably our best shower chance of the week, although again raindrops look pretty isolated. At the moment, I think the best chance of a rain shower will be Saturday afternoon or evening, although that's not a very confident timeline.
Otherwise, expect scattered clouds. And the temperature pendulum swings back to the below-normal, "fall feel" lower 60s.
Sunday & Beyond
Sunday looks dry and partly sunny, with highs again in the lower 60s. A stiff breeze may add a "blustery" characteristic to the day.
The forecast becomes highly uncertain for early next week. High temps may come down to the 50s — more typical in November than October. And eventually, a strong cold front will push in steady to heavy rain. GFS says Tuesday. Euro says Thursday. We'll see how things play out before I make a clear call.