Three Days of Pleasant, Autumnal, Mainly Dry Weather for NJ
As I marvel at the amount of white-space on my written forecast (i.e. there's not much to talk about), it strikes me how long it's been since we've had such a quiet forecast!
So I looked it up.
There is a chance (not a guarantee) that New Jersey sees six consecutive dry weather days (Tuesday to Sunday). The last time we had 6+ dry days in a row was over a year ago, in late August 2018 (8/24 to 8/30). Even a streak of 5 consecutive dry days has only occurred once since then, from July 11-16, 2019.
As I drove to work early Tuesday morning, the sky spit on my windshield. Radar continues to pick up some patchy drizzle and sprinkles. Models show these raindrops will depart by around 8 a.m. I expect bright sunny skies shortly thereafter.
Tuesday is really shaping up to be a beautiful day, even though it will be cooler than the past few days. High temperatures will reach the mid 70s for most of the state, just a hair below normal for mid-September. Dew points and humidity will scale back dramatically, adding a crisp fall-like feel to the day.
Given the cooler temps, I'm not sure it's an ideal beach day. But at least it will be bright and sunny. There is a moderate risk of rip currents and rough surf posted for the Jersey Shore on Tuesday, with wave heights climbing to about 4 feet.
Tuesday night will be clear, calm, and cool. Low temperatures will dip into the mid 50s for most. I could see scattered 40s in the usual cool spots, especially at elevation in NW NJ.
Some clouds will creep into the sky on Wednesday — let's call it partly sunny inland, mostly cloudy coast. It will be the coolest day of the week, with thermometers mainly in the upper 60s.
I also have to include a slight chance for a shower or sprinkle for Wednesday. As Hurricane Humberto passes several hundred miles to our east, a bit of lift could spark some raindrops. Many of my meteorological colleagues have completely written-off rain, and I can't blame them at all. But I just can't throw out a completely dry forecast for Wednesday. The best chance for a shower will be along the Jersey Shore.
On Thursday, we flip back to sunny skies and dry weather. The air will be so dry that widespread 40s are possible Thursday morning — pretty chilly! Thursday afternoon's highs will remain cooler than normal, peaking in the lower 70s.
At this point in the forecast, I will remind you that it's technically still summer until Monday! So it should be no surprise that another warmup will kick in Friday. Under mostly sunny skies, highs will bump to around the 80-degree mark.
The weekend looks wonderful and warm. Lower to mid 80s and partly sunny skies on Saturday. Lower to mid 80s and mostly sunny skies on Sunday.
Our next front and chance of substantial rain will come sometime Monday. Even then, I still don't see any big, bad storm systems in the long-range forecast through the rest of September.