The Bottom Line

This is a challenging forecast. Because every time I turn to look at model guidance, something changes dramatically from the day before. I think we’re getting a clearer look at the upcoming weekend, as several weak storm systems pass through New Jersey. (Key word: weak.)

Given the shaky confidence, let me summarize the weather forecast with three simple statements:
1.) The only day your outdoor plans are in serious jeopardy is Saturday, with a few waves of showers and thunderstorms expected.
2.) The only day with below-normal temperatures looks to be Monday.
3.) Humidity returns for Saturday and Sunday only.

Thursday

Wednesday was truly a taste of summer across New Jersey, with high temperatures as hot as 91 degrees. No records were threatened, although thermometers were running almost 20 degrees above normal for mid-May!

Temperatures take a step back on Thursday, mainly thanks to a switch to southeasterly winds. That little breeze, blowing from the cool ocean, is all it will take to keep temperatures away from 90. Skies will turn partly sunny too.

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HRRR model forecast for Thursday afternoon. Note temperatures will be much cooler than Wednesday, especially along the Jersey Shore. (Tropical Tidbits)

Having said that, I think it’s still going to be a pleasant day. High temperatures will range from 70 degrees along the immediate coast to around 80 degrees far inland. Feeling much more May-like. Plus, the forecast is rain-free. And low humidity levels continue.

Thursday night will be cool, with most lows in the lower 50s. (Some 40s are possible in the coolest spots.) It’ll stay partly cloudy. And I can’t rule out a little sprinkle clipping northern New Jersey through early Friday morning.

Friday

When I forecast the weather, I spend a lot of time thinking about how a day will “look” and “feel”. Overall, I suspect Friday will be pretty similar to Thursday. Nice and warm, with scattered clouds, and inland high temperatures around 80 degrees.

One important change is the arrival of a weak impulse late-day Friday, between about 4 p.m. and 10 p.m. That will drive a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms into New Jersey. (Mainly the northern and central segments of the state.)

Saturday

As we dive into the weekend, it is going to turn noticeably more humid. With dew points rising into the 60s, you’re especially going to notice the stickiness in the mornings and evenings.

In addition, we face one or two waves of showers and thunderstorms during the day on Saturday. No washout. But your outdoor plans may be affected.

I’m not hanging my hat on a particular timeline at this point. But my current thinking is that we’ll get one round of raindrops in the morning, then a lull, then scattered thunderstorms firing up in the late afternoon and early evening.

Otherwise, skies turn mostly cloudy Saturday with highs in the lower 80s.

Sunday

Another truly summerlike day, as high temperatures surge into the mid to upper 80s. Plus, this time around, it’s going to be humid. Steamy!

Sunday will feature periods of sun and clouds. I think it will be a mainly dry day, although a shower or popup thunderstorm will be possible at any time. (Especially early morning and early evening.)

The Extended Forecast

Monday looks like the coolest day of the next week, with highs struggling to reach 70 degrees under mostly cloudy skies.

The rest of next week looks fine. Temperatures at or above normal, for the most part. The “wiggle” of a frontal boundary in the neighborhood will dictate whether or not we see rain. (Right now, Wednesday into Thursday would be the best chance for stormy weather.)

How that shakes out will directly impact how our atmosphere is setup for the big Memorial Day Weekend. Only 9 days away now!

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