The Bottom Line

We have about 24 hours of occasionally wet and very humid weather. Pockets of heavy rain may lead to ponding and flooding issues. But on the horizon, a little taste of fall-like weather will settle over New Jersey for the start of the weekend.

Thursday

Soggy and steamy. Not a very nice day. Bands of rain will stream from south to north across New Jersey throughout the day. While it won't be a total washout, you are going to need the umbrella and windshield wipers at times. Some pockets of heavy rain and rumbles of thunder will be possible across the day.

In fact, forecast models have really ramped up the rainfall potential. While most of New Jersey will average a half-inch of rain across the day, the potential is there for pockets of 3+ inches. That's more than enough to cause flooding issues — localized, but significant.

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for Hunterdon, Somerset, Middlesex, inland Monmouth, Mercer, Salem, Gloucester, Camden, and northwestern Burlington counties. That's the National Weather Service trying to pinpoint the largest threat for that 3+ inch rainfall pocket. (Personally, I would have extended that watch a little farther south, just in case.)

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for much of New Jersey from 5 a.m. to Midnight Thursday. (AerisWeather)

Temperatures will top out in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees, close to normal for early-mid September. Humidity levels will be uncomfortably high, with dew points firmly in the 70s.

The chance for moderate to heavy rain will continue Thursday night. It will get a bit breezy (gusts to 20 mph), as our cold front arrives.

Friday

The rain will finally exit early Friday morning. Differences amongst guidance mean I have to give you a wide window for final raindrop timing — sometime between 2 a.m. and 8 a.m.

Then Friday will turn into a nice day. Skies will slowly clear, as humidity levels (dew points) slowly drop. High temperatures will peak in the mid 70s. A couple of high-res models push an isolated shower or sprinkle through northern New Jersey Friday evening, but I'm not overly concerned about it.

Saturday

Saturday also looks pleasant, although cooler. Partly sunny skies will join bone-dry air, with highs only in the lower 70s. Those temperatures would be seasonable a few weeks from now. That's why I'm comfortable calling the start of the weekend "a little taste of fall".

By the way, Saturday morning temperatures could dip into the 40s in NW NJ. A little chilly!

Sunday

Turning cloudy and wet again. Latest model trends suggest the day will start dry, before scattered rain streams through the state from late morning through the afternoon. It will be breezy and humid too. High temperatures will push back to nearly 80 degrees.

Monday & Beyond

Another cold front will open the door to another extended period of dry, quiet, pleasant weather. Monday's high temperatures will be int he seasonable upper 70s, as clouds turn to sun. It might be a little breezy.

Near 70 degrees on Tuesday might sound a little cool. But abundant sunshine will help to cut through the chill.

Wednesday should bounce back to the mid to upper 70s, again with dry weather and spectacular sunshine.

Meanwhile, September 10th is the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. And the tropics are still very active, with three waves under observation in addition to Tropical Storm Paulette and Tropical Storm Rene. Both of these named storms are expected to curve out to sea. But Paulette may end up just west of Bermuda as a hurricane — perhaps close enough to spit some rough surf and swell toward the Jersey Shore early next week.

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