The Bottom Line

All eyes are on a tropical rainstorm spinning along the North Carolina coast. (As of 5 a.m., it still has not intensified into a tropical depression or tropical storm.) While our weather will remain quiet on Thursday (albeit hot and humid), things will go downhill rapidly Thursday night. A tropical rainstorm will deliver (in order) clouds, rain, heavy rain, and wind through Friday. Some coastal issues are expected too.


The air is pretty thick on this Thursday morning, with temperatures in the 70s. Patches of fog have developed too, dense in spots with visibility below a quarter-mile. Conditions should improve quite a bit by 8 a.m., with hazy sunshine developing by late morning. It's going to be hot and humid, with inland highs near 90. (Lower to mid 80s along the coast.)

A moderate risk of dangerous rip currents and rough surf is posted for the Jersey Shore Thursday.

Clouds will start to creep into South Jersey by dinnertime, spreading north Thursday evening. Rain will arrive in SE NJ around Midnight Thursday night, becoming more widespread and heavier overnight.


Once again, I am going to put together a special blog post dedicated to our impending coastal storm system. Timeline, scenarios, etc. When that's ready, this paragraph will be replaced by a link.

The worst case scenario tracks the center of this low pressure system right over the Jersey Shore. Periods of heavy rain are likely through at least the morning and early afternoon, potentially topping 2 or 3 inches total. Wind gusts of 40+ mph (coast) and 30+ mph (inland) are expected. Storm surge models are now showing a half-foot to a foot of extra water, leading to minor coastal flooding at high tide.

Conditions will improve in South Jersey around early-mid afternoon, while rain will persist in North Jersey through Friday evening.

So, a nasty weather day. At least the storm will limit the high temperature to the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. It will be very humid.


Just plain hot, as high temperatures return to 90. Look for a mix of sun and clouds throughout the day, with scattered thunderstorms possible late. (Some models paint some powerful storms over NJ around dinnertime.)


While humidity will dial back slightly, I'm not sure you're going to notice. Especially with high temperatures in the lower 90s. Sunshine should win the day, and I don't see a substantial thunderstorm chance.


Still hot, with highs near 90. Skies will average partly sunny, and we'll pick up a brisk southeasterly wind potentially gusting above 20 mph. (I'd call that noticeable.) A round of late-day thunderstorms is possible, but I don't think model guidance has good resolution on the geography and intensity of those storms just yet.

The Extended Forecast

The long-range forecast shows a heat ridge building into the Northeast U.S. through the middle of next week. I'm seeing hazy sunshine for both Tuesday and Wednesday, with high temperatures probably at 90+ aside from the Jersey Shore. A cooldown would be hard to come by too, as things look to stay hot through mid-July, at least.

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