The Bottom Line

What a dud. A last-minute jog to the east and an influx of dry air killed New Jersey's shot at heavy snow overnight. Meanwhile, New England is getting clobbered by this nor'easter, with widespread heavy snow and rain.

Having said that, we are still facing two storm impacts Tuesday here in the Garden State. First, periods of light to moderate snow may cause some accumulations and travel issues. Second — and probably the bigger story here — is the wind, which will kick up to 40+ mph this afternoon and beyond.

Following this somewhat wintry and not-very-nice Tuesday, we can look ahead to another windy day, a pleasant day, and then our next pair of storm systems.


A Winter Storm Warning continues until 6 p.m. for Sussex County and until 6 a.m. for western Passaic County. A Winter Weather Advisory is posted for western Bergen, eastern Passaic, Morris, and Warren counties. (Downgraded from a warning there.)

I am still confident this will be New Jersey's 8th two-inch snow event of the winter season. So it's not a complete bust. Especially since "practically nothing" was a clear part of the forecast for the southern two-thirds of the state.

We are now on the backside of the coastal low-pressure system. It looks like a piece of energy will ride over the top of that counter-clockwise circulation, forcing a resurgence of precipitation around midday Tuesday. Given dropping temperatures, most (if not all) of what falls from the sky will be snowflakes rather than raindrops this time around.

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Expect periods of light to moderate snow Tuesday morning through the afternoon, especially to the north and east. (South of Burlington and Ocean counties, I would expect nothing more than a quick flurry.) Some accumulations are likely to the north — on the order of maybe 4 to 6 inches, max. Road conditions should stay just wet for most of the state.

Meanwhile, the bigger weather story will be wind. As strong low pressure departs and strong high pressure builds in, that gradient (difference) will drive in fierce northwesterly winds. Top gusts will probably hit 40+ MPH. Sporadic power outages, blown-over garbage cans, and driving difficulties should be expected. A Wind Advisory covers the southern half of New Jersey (from Mercer and Monmouth on down) from 1 p.m. to Midnight.

Skies will stay cloudy and temperatures will be stagnant throughout Tuesday. Highs will range from the mid 30s (north) to the lower 40s (south).

The chance of a snow shower will come to an end Tuesday evening, and skies will start to clear overnight. Winds will stay gusty overnight. And low temperatures will dip to around 30 degrees. Not a hard freeze, but definitely cold and blustery.


I don't see the wind letting up much until Wednesday evening, with gusts still in the 30 to 40 mph range across New Jersey.

It will become mostly sunny Wednesday morning. High temperatures will reach about 45 to 50 degrees Wednesday afternoon. Just shy of normal for the Ides of March.


Thursday looks like a pleasant day. The nicest of the week, in fact.

With calmer winds and dry weather, skies will progress from partly sunny to mostly cloudy. High temperatures will reach into the mild 50s. Nothing to complain about there.


Our weather turns active and inclement again at the end of the week.

Clouds will win the sky on Friday, although high temps should still hit the 50s for most.

The issue is a weak impulse that may ride through New Jersey's atmosphere during the daytime hours on Friday. It would take the form of scattered rain showers, between breakfast time and dinner time. But it's not a "slam dunk" wet day, and it will not be a washout. (GFS model says wet, Euro says dry.)

Saturday & Beyond

An even more prominent storm system will visit New Jersey on Saturday morning. This time, rain looks a bit steadier. And there is some hint that snowflakes could get involved. (That is largely based on timing, overnight vs. late morning.)

Clearing skies will take over Saturday afternoon, as temperatures descend through the 40s.

Sunday will be bright and blustery, with unseasonably chilly highs in the lower 40s.

And then we should bounce back into the 50s again for next week.

I have to finish by raising the question once again: Are we done with "winter" now? (Of course, it could be argued that "winter" never really started for much of NJ.)

My answer is "probably yes". The threat of a big blizzard is pretty low going forward. There may be some bursts of snow and a wintry mix. Sure, even some accumulations. But I believe those holding out for one late-season "big one" are going to be sorely disappointed.

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