The Bottom Line

Even though Tuesday's cold front will allow temperatures and dew points to dial back slightly, our very warm July weather continues. We've got a few chances of rain to talk about, especially over the upcoming weekend. It's a complicated forecast, and I've done a lot of shoulder shrugging trying to figure out this puzzle. Timing details are still hazy, but I can give you a decent outline of when the weather will be nice and when it won't.

Wednesday

You know, I was really hoping to walk outside to catch a breath of fresh, cool, not humid air. And... eh. Yes, we had a cold front slide through New Jersey on Tuesday. But the effects are subtle. Drier air will arrive through the day, really punching into our atmosphere Wednesday afternoon. That will make humidity levels more comfortable and, frankly, less dangerous. But it's still going to be a hot day.

High temperatures will reach about 90 degrees Wednesday afternoon. (Compare that to as hot as 97 on Tuesday, with a triple digit heat index.) We don't have to talk about the "heat index" or "dangerous heat," and no heat warnings or advisories are issued for New Jersey. Skies will become mostly sunny, and the day looks rain-free. Not bad for the middle of summer, honestly.

The Jersey Shore will be the big winner on this Wednesday. The sea breeze machine should fire up, limited high temps to the 80s and keeping the flies away. A low risk of rip currents is posted from Sandy Hook to Cape May.

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Wednesday night will remain quiet and dry. Under partly cloudy skies, low temperatures will dip into the lower 70s. Just a little sticky.

Thursday

Daytime hours look fine. Early sunshine will give way to afternoon clouds. It will be breezy at times, out of the southwest up to 20 mph. And it will be hot again, with highs in the lower 90s.

Our next storm system should hold off until Thursday evening. As the aforementioned cold front returns northward as a warm front, it ultimately looks to stall just south of New Jersey. That will provide a "highway" for little storm systems to travel through the upcoming weekend.

Scattered light rain looks to arrive after 7 p.m. I don't see anything incredibly heavy, severe, or dramatic here. (Although there could be some steady rain and rumbles of thunder.) Just some wet weather stretching from Thursday night through Friday morning.

Friday

While the day will start with raindrops, we'll hopefully clear to sunshine by the afternoon. As long as this forecast plays out as expected, we'll enjoy pleasant and seasonable high temperatures between 85 and 90 degrees.

Saturday

With a stuck frontal boundary in the neighborhood, the first weekend of August looks unsettled for the Garden State. But not a total washout.

Under partly to mostly cloudy skies, a few rounds of thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday. The best chance of heavy rain and strong storms over the entire course of the weekend looks to be late Saturday night through early Sunday morning (the overnight). High temperatures on Saturday should be similar to Friday, between the mid 80s and 90 degrees (dependent on clouds and rain).

Sunday

Sunday looks to be the breezier, hotter, and (potentially) drier day of the weekend. Again, there will probably be some raindrops around. But you'll probably find some time for pool, beach, or backyard time. High temperatures will pop to about 90 degrees.

The Extended Forecast

Monday looks stormy and unsettled too. In fact, that familiar forecast will continue until we can "kick out the junk" — that frontal boundary has to unhinge itself and drift south before we see substantial changes or improvements. That may happen on Tuesday, depending on which model and model run you believe. But there's a good chance the entire first week of August will feature active, occasionally stormy weather.

Meanwhile, we're still watching the tropics. Now officially deemed "Potential Tropical Cyclone 9", an area of low pressure system is centered over the tiny island of Dominica as of 5 a.m. Wednesday. That is about 1,900 miles southeast of New Jersey.
It is expected to become a tropical storm later Wednesday — the next name on the list is Isaias. (Pronounced ees-ah-EE-ahs — 4 syllables, trust me.)

5 a.m. update for Potential Tropical Cyclone #9, which is expected to develop into a tropical storm on Wednesday. (NOAA / NHC)

PTC #9's forecast track has shifted south since my last weather blog entry. That path carries the center of the storm directly over the islands along the northern rim of the Caribbean Sea — Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba. The lack of open ocean, coupled with some dry-ish air around that area of the tropics and nearby topography, soon-to-be-Isaias is going to have a hard time developing into anything stronger than a tropical storm. It also makes a direct NJ impact highly unlikely — although we'll still be watching for a shift in the track or possible coastal impacts.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.