NJ weather: Stormy and steamy Friday, drying out for the weekend
The Bottom Line
New Jersey is getting wet Friday.
Not only will it be wetter than Thursday, but it will be a warmer and more humid day too. Once again, I can't recommend the beach (or any outdoor activities) here, with two batches of wet weather sliding through the state.
However, the weekend is looking considerably better. Brighter, drier, and happier. While the chance for a shower is not quite zero, and it will not feel "refreshing" necessarily, there is no need to change or cancel plans.
Our next period of unsettled weather will come early next week. We will also have to carefully watch for surf impacts from Tropical Storm (soon to be Hurricane) Franklin in the Atlantic.
No matter here in NJ you are, you are likely to see some rain on Friday. It will be heavy at times. However, we are not ringing alarm bells for significant flooding and/or severe weather. It's just another unsettled day.
As of this writing (6:30 a.m.), a broad area of moderate to heavy rain is pushing across approximately the northern half of the state. (From northern Burlington and northern Ocean on up.) It's really pouring, with some embedded lightning too. Those puddles will make for a challenging commute over the next few hours.
By late morning, we will dry out a bit. But scattered showers and thunderstorms will pickup through the afternoon and evening. Likely drifting south as the day gets later.
While you might catch a peek or two of sun at some point, clouds will prevail. It will be breezy and humid. And warmer than Thursday, with highs in the lower 80s.
Rain will diminish Friday evening, hopefully ending by Midnight. And then we will probably see areas of fog develop overnight. It is going to stay pretty muggy, as low temperatures only drop to about the 70 degree mark.
Usually after a period of unsettled, stormy weather wraps up, we are treated to a burst of "refreshing" cooler, drier air. Not this time around though.
Humidity levels will dial back a little bit for Saturday — dew points descend from the 70s to the 60s. But it is going to be a warm and sticky start to August's final weekend. High temperatures will push into the seasonable mid 80s across most of the state.
Skies will be much brighter — let's call it partly sunny.
Most of the state will enjoy a completely dry day Saturday. However, I still have to include a slight chance of showers, with two opportunities for some raindrops. First in the morning, from leftover overnight convection. Second, in the late afternoon, as a weak cold front sags through the state.
Don't go changing or canceling your plans due to this rain chance though — any showers that popup should be few and far between.
Sunday also looks pretty good. With a mix of sun and clouds, high temperatures will end up close to 80 degrees. Not every computer model paints a dry solution for Sunday, I favor a rain-free forecast. Once again, humidity levels will be moderate. Lots to like about this forecast.
Monday & Beyond
Early next week looks to turn unsettled again, surrounding the eventual arrival of a strong cold front. The timing of that rain is highly uncertain though — guidance is all over the place. So for now, I'm keeping a blanket shower/storm chance from Monday through Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. We will refine that more as it gets closer.
Behind that front should come our next burst of refreshing air. If all goes well, we could have stellar weather to end August, begin September, and heading into the Labor Day Weekend.
We continue to keep a close eye on the tropics as well, with the average peak of the Atlantic hurricane season coming up. Tropical Storm Franklin is currently centered about 200 miles north of the Dominican Republic. That is about 1,200 miles southeast of New Jersey. It is expected to intensify into a hurricane this weekend, as it passes between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast. There is not a single track scenario that brings weather impacts to New Jersey.
But the surf is going to be all churned up as Franklin passes about 500 miles southeast of us next Tuesday. I would expect red flags to fly at Jersey Shore beaches for a couple days as a result of the high risk of rip currents and dangerous conditions. The swell may induce some coastal flooding too, but our tidal models aren't really helpful until 72 hours before. We will keep you posted.
There is another tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea being monitored for potential development, and then impact along the Gulf Coast. The next name on the Atlantic list for the year is Idalia.